| 摘要 | 第1-7页 |
| ABSTRACT | 第7-13页 |
| Acronyms and Abbreviations | 第13-16页 |
| Conversion factors | 第16-17页 |
| Definitions | 第17-19页 |
| Table of Contents | 第19-24页 |
| List of Figures | 第24-27页 |
| List of Tables | 第27-30页 |
| Boxes | 第30-31页 |
| CHAPTER 1 ENERGY USE AND ENERGY RESOURCES | 第31-69页 |
| ·IMPACT OF ENERGY USE | 第33-36页 |
| ·SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND EQUITY IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE | 第36-39页 |
| ·ENERGY TRANSITIONS AND ENERGY USE | 第39-45页 |
| ·ENERGY SYSTEM MODELING | 第45-46页 |
| ·MODELING APPROACH AND REQUIREMENTS FOR MALAWI | 第46-54页 |
| ·Selected examples showing worldwide application of energy models | 第47-48页 |
| ·Examples of country-specific applications | 第48-49页 |
| ·Examples of energy modeling tools | 第49-50页 |
| ·Examples of E3-model applications | 第50-53页 |
| ·Energy modeling options for least developed countries such as Malawi | 第53-54页 |
| ·LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES AND ENERGY | 第54-55页 |
| ·ENERGY RESOURCES | 第55-60页 |
| ·Fuel wood | 第55页 |
| ·Charcoal | 第55-56页 |
| ·Hydropower | 第56页 |
| ·Solar energy | 第56页 |
| ·Wind energy | 第56-57页 |
| ·Biogas | 第57页 |
| ·Coal | 第57-58页 |
| ·Petroleum products | 第58-60页 |
| ·ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERN | 第60-66页 |
| ·Cooking | 第62-64页 |
| ·Lighting | 第64-66页 |
| ·Space heating | 第66页 |
| ·Other end-uses | 第66页 |
| ·THESIS ORGANIZATION | 第66-69页 |
| CHAPTER 2 PROBLEM STATEMENT, RESEARCH PURPOSEAND JUSTIFICATION | 第69-77页 |
| ·PROBLEM STATEMENT | 第69-70页 |
| ·THESIS AIM AND OBJECTIVES | 第70-71页 |
| ·STUDY JUSTIFICATION | 第71-77页 |
| CHAPTER 3 ENERGY SYSTEM MODELING TOOLS | 第77-101页 |
| ·INTRODUCTION | 第77页 |
| ·CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF AN INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEM MODEL | 第77-80页 |
| ·The supply module | 第78页 |
| ·The demand module | 第78-79页 |
| ·The database module | 第79页 |
| ·The analytical module | 第79-80页 |
| ·The input/output modules | 第80页 |
| ·CHARACTERISTICS OF ENERGY MODELS | 第80-86页 |
| ·Purpose of energy models | 第81页 |
| ·Structural assumptions of energy models | 第81-86页 |
| ·A REVIEW OF ENERGY MODELING TOOLS | 第86-99页 |
| ·Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) | 第87-88页 |
| ·Market Allocation model (MARKAL) | 第88-89页 |
| ·PRIMES Energy System Model | 第89-90页 |
| ·Model of Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General EnvironmentalImpacts (MESSAGE) | 第90-91页 |
| ·World Energy Model (WEM) | 第91-92页 |
| ·Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS) model | 第92-93页 |
| ·Mesures d’Utilisation Rationnelle de l’Energie (MURE) | 第93-94页 |
| ·National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) – Residential Sector Demand Module | 第94-95页 |
| ·National Impact Analysis (NIA) tool | 第95-96页 |
| ·Policy Analysis Modeling System (PAMS) | 第96-97页 |
| ·Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS) | 第97页 |
| ·Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) | 第97-99页 |
| ·ADOPTION OF AN INTEGRATED MODELING TOOL FOR MALAWI | 第99-101页 |
| CHAPTER 4 DEVELOPMENT OF AN ENERGY SYSTEM MODELFOR MALAWI | 第101-137页 |
| ·PROFILE OF NATIONAL ENERGY SYSTEM OF MALAWI | 第101-106页 |
| ·Basic facts about Malawi | 第101-102页 |
| ·Demography and major demographic policy issues | 第102页 |
| ·Macro-economic situation and major economic policy issues | 第102-105页 |
| ·Major environmental policy issues | 第105-106页 |
| ·ENERGY NEEDS FOR MALAWI | 第106-113页 |
| ·MODELING NATIONAL ENERGY SYSTEM OF MALAWI | 第113-120页 |
| ·Model scope and format | 第113-115页 |
| ·Modeling scheme for the indigenous model | 第115-120页 |
| ·FINAL ENERGY SUPPLY-CONSUMPTION MODEL OF MALAWI | 第120-122页 |
| ·USING FINAL ENERGY SUPPLY-CONSUMPTION MODEL AS AN IEP MODEL | 第122-134页 |
| ·Analytical module description | 第123页 |
| ·MAED methodology | 第123-126页 |
| ·MOLP-AHP model formulation | 第126-133页 |
| ·Sensitivity analysis | 第133-134页 |
| ·THE INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEMS MODEL | 第134-135页 |
| ·SUMMARY | 第135-137页 |
| CHAPTER 5 MEDIUM AND LONG –TERM ANALYSIS OFENERGY DEMAND | 第137-183页 |
| ·SELECTION OF STUDY TIME FRAME AND BASE YEAR | 第137页 |
| ·ENERGY USE IN THE HOUSEHOLD SECTOR | 第137-141页 |
| ·Classification of households | 第137-138页 |
| ·Heating degree-days and share of dwellings requiring space heating | 第138页 |
| ·Dwellings sizes, cooling and heating requirements | 第138页 |
| ·Share of electric air-conditioning in rural and urban households | 第138-139页 |
| ·Share of dwellings with hot water facilities | 第139页 |
| ·Specific useful energy consumption for households | 第139-140页 |
| ·Penetration of energy carriers into thermal use | 第140-141页 |
| ·Efficiencies of energy carriers in households | 第141页 |
| ·ENERGY USE IN THE COMMERCIAL SECTOR | 第141-143页 |
| ·Definition of the sub-sectors in the commercial sector | 第141页 |
| ·The number of active labor force and floor areas | 第141-142页 |
| ·Space heating requirements | 第142页 |
| ·Share of air-conditioning in service sector | 第142页 |
| ·Energy intensities for electricity specific uses and other thermal uses | 第142-143页 |
| ·Penetration of energy carriers into space heating and other thermal uses | 第143页 |
| ·Contribution of solar installation to thermal use | 第143页 |
| ·Fuel efficiencies | 第143页 |
| ·SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT | 第143-149页 |
| ·Qualitative description of scenarios | 第143-144页 |
| ·Demographic assumptions | 第144-147页 |
| ·Assumptions on economic growth and structural change of the economy | 第147-149页 |
| ·DEVELOPMENT OF PARAMETERS ON DWELLING PATTERN AND ENERGY USE IN HOUSEHOLD SECTOR | 第149-154页 |
| ·Reference growth scenario | 第149-151页 |
| ·Accelerated growth scenario | 第151-152页 |
| ·Moderate growth scenario | 第152-154页 |
| ·ASSUMPTIONS ON THE COMMERCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT | 第154-156页 |
| ·Reference growth scenario | 第154-155页 |
| ·Accelerated growth scenario | 第155-156页 |
| ·Moderate growth scenario | 第156页 |
| ·ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTIONS | 第156-170页 |
| ·The ranges of total energy demand projections | 第156-157页 |
| ·Detailed analysis of reference scenario | 第157-161页 |
| ·Detailed analysis of accelerated growth scenario | 第161-165页 |
| ·Detailed analysis of moderate growth scenario | 第165-170页 |
| ·PROJECTION OF ELECTRICITY LOAD PATTERNS IN THE HOUSEHOLD AND COMMERCIALSECTORS | 第170-181页 |
| ·Features of Electricity Load in Malawi | 第170-172页 |
| ·Reconstruction of electricity load patterns for the base year | 第172-177页 |
| ·Projection of electricity load patterns | 第177-181页 |
| ·SUMMARY | 第181-183页 |
| CHAPTER 6 MULTI-OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RESULTS | 第183-193页 |
| ·ENERGY COEFFICIENTS | 第183页 |
| ·OBJECTIVE FUNCTIONS | 第183-185页 |
| ·Minimization of cost | 第183-184页 |
| ·Minimization of use of petroleum products | 第184页 |
| ·Maximization of the use of renewable resources | 第184页 |
| ·Maximization of safety, comfort and convenience in the use of energy resources | 第184-185页 |
| ·Minimization of use of fuel wood products | 第185页 |
| ·CONSTRAINTS | 第185-187页 |
| ·MODEL RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS | 第187-189页 |
| ·SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS | 第189-191页 |
| ·SUMMARY | 第191-193页 |
| CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS | 第193-199页 |
| ·CONCLUSIONS | 第193-196页 |
| ·RECOMMENDATIONS | 第196-197页 |
| ·POSTERIOR | 第197页 |
| ·CONTRIBUTIONS | 第197-199页 |
| Acknowledgements | 第199-201页 |
| References | 第201-213页 |
| Appendix | 第213-331页 |
| Appendix A: Residential Energy Consumption Questionnaire | 第213-276页 |
| Appendix B: Commercial Buildings Energy ConsumptionQuestionnaire | 第276-322页 |
| Appendix C: AHP Energy end users questionnaire oncomparative convenience, safety and comfort of energy sources | 第322-326页 |
| Appendix D: Determination of AHP Weighting Factors | 第326-331页 |
