| Acknowledgements | 第4-5页 |
| 摘要 | 第5-6页 |
| Abstract | 第6页 |
| Table of Contents | 第7-10页 |
| List of Figures | 第10-11页 |
| List of Tables | 第11-12页 |
| Chapter One Introduction | 第12-17页 |
| 1.1 Formulation of the problem | 第13页 |
| 1.2 Research questions | 第13页 |
| 1.3 Thesis objectives | 第13-14页 |
| 1.4 The variables identification for the problem formulation | 第14页 |
| 1.5 Substantiation | 第14-15页 |
| 1.6 The kind of research to apply | 第15页 |
| 1.7 Scope | 第15页 |
| 1.8 Hypothesis | 第15-16页 |
| 1.9 The thesis mapping | 第16-17页 |
| Chapter Two Literature Review | 第17-38页 |
| 2.1 Strategic planning | 第18-19页 |
| 2.2 The benefits about managing the future | 第19-20页 |
| 2.3 The forecasting process | 第20-21页 |
| 2.4 Megatrends | 第21-25页 |
| 2.5 Some megatrends analysis models | 第25-32页 |
| 2.5.1 The forecasting generic process adapted by Joseph Voros | 第25-27页 |
| 2.5.2 Delphi’s megatrends analysis and strategic portfolio (Megatrend Analysis and Portfolio Strategy -MASP) | 第27-30页 |
| 2.5.3 The prospective Godet scenario method | 第30-31页 |
| 2.5.4 HVAC Co. forecasting process | 第31-32页 |
| 2.5.5 Michael Porter 's competitive advantage strategic typology | 第32页 |
| 2.6 Supporting tools for forecasting the future | 第32-37页 |
| 2.6.1 STEEP Analysis | 第32-33页 |
| 2.6.2 Environment exploration and analysis | 第33页 |
| 2.6.3 Scenario planning | 第33-35页 |
| 2.6.4 SWOT analysis | 第35-36页 |
| 2.6.5 Business Integration Engineering (BIE) | 第36页 |
| 2.6.6 Five forces of Michael Porter | 第36-37页 |
| 2.7 Discussion | 第37-38页 |
| Chapter Three Proposed Method | 第38-50页 |
| 3.1 Level 1 - Strategic thinking | 第42-46页 |
| 3.1.1 Analyze the vision and objectives | 第42-43页 |
| 3.1.2 Internal data collection | 第43-44页 |
| 3.1.3 Explore the global context surrounding the business | 第44-45页 |
| 3.1.4 SWOT analysis | 第45-46页 |
| 3.2 Level 2 - Strategic development | 第46-48页 |
| 3.3 Level 3 - Plan strategic options | 第48页 |
| 3.4 Level 4 - Implement strategies | 第48-49页 |
| 3.4.1 Identify new business strategy | 第49页 |
| 3.4.2 Identify new key processes | 第49页 |
| 3.4.3 Develop the necessary changes in process, organization, technology and labor force | 第49页 |
| 3.5 Conclusions of use of the method for the development of new business based on the megatrends analysis | 第49-50页 |
| Chapter Four Cases of Study | 第50-78页 |
| 4.1 Case of Study 1 - Refri & Co. | 第50-60页 |
| 4.1.1 Level 1 - Strategic thinking | 第51-57页 |
| 4.1.2 Level 2 - Strategic development | 第57-59页 |
| 4.1.3 Results | 第59-60页 |
| 4.2 Case Study 2 - HVAC Co. | 第60-78页 |
| 4.2.1 Level 1 - Strategic thinking | 第61-68页 |
| 4.2.2 Level 2 - Strategic development | 第68-72页 |
| 4.2.3 Level 3 - Plan strategic options | 第72-73页 |
| 4.2.4 Level 4 - Implement strategies | 第73-74页 |
| 4.2.5 Results | 第74-78页 |
| Chapter five Conclusions, results and future research | 第78-83页 |
| 5.1 Conclusions | 第78-80页 |
| 5.1.1 Conclusions on the identification of critical factors in strategic planning | 第78页 |
| 5.1.2 Conclusions on understanding megatrends | 第78-79页 |
| 5.1.3 Conclusions on the proposed method | 第79页 |
| 5.1.4 Impact conclusion in the three pillars of the organizations: Management, Manufacturing and Leadership | 第79-80页 |
| 5.2 Results | 第80-82页 |
| 5.3 Future Research | 第82-83页 |
| References | 第83-88页 |
