| 摘要 | 第3-5页 |
| ABSTRACT | 第5-7页 |
| ABBREVIATIONS | 第8-16页 |
| Chapter 1 INRODUCTION | 第16-26页 |
| 1.1 Background | 第16-19页 |
| 1.2 Hydro-Meteorological Characteristics of the Study Area | 第19-21页 |
| 1.3 Significance of the Study | 第21-24页 |
| 1.4 Objectives of the Study | 第24页 |
| 1.5 Layout of the Thesis | 第24-26页 |
| Chapter 2 LITERATURE REVIEW | 第26-33页 |
| 2.1 Global Climate Models (GCMs) | 第26-27页 |
| 2.2 IPCC AR5 Scenarios | 第27-28页 |
| 2.3 Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling of GCMs | 第28-29页 |
| 2.4 Regional Climate Modeling (RCM) | 第29-30页 |
| 2.5 The Climate Change Impact on the Water Resources | 第30-33页 |
| Chapter 3 MATERIALS AND METHODS | 第33-40页 |
| 3.1 General Methodology | 第33-34页 |
| 3.2 Description of RegCM4.3 | 第34-35页 |
| 3.3 GFDL-ESM2M GCM | 第35-36页 |
| 3.4 HEC-HMS Hydrological Model | 第36-40页 |
| Chapter 4 SENSITIVITY OF REGCM4.3 TO DIFFERENT CONVECTION ANDLAND SURFACE SCHEMS | 第40-57页 |
| 4.1 Background | 第40页 |
| 4.2 Data and Experimental Design for Six Sensitivity Experiments | 第40-42页 |
| 4.3 Near Surface Air Temperature | 第42-46页 |
| 4.4 Seasonal Mean Precipitation | 第46-49页 |
| 4.5 Statistical Analysis of Variation in Temperature and Precipitation regimes ofSASM | 第49-53页 |
| 4.6 Annual Cycle of Temperature and Precipitation | 第53-55页 |
| 4.7 Summary | 第55-57页 |
| Chapter 5 ASSESMENT OF SOUTH ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON VARIABILITYUSING REGCM4.3 FOR PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATOLOGIES | 第57-76页 |
| 5.1 Background | 第57-58页 |
| 5.2 Experimental Design and Model Data | 第58-59页 |
| 5.3 Evaluation of RegCM4.3 for Reference Period | 第59-67页 |
| 5.4 Assessment of Climate Change Signals | 第67-71页 |
| 5.5 Effect of Biases on Projected Changes as Simulated by RegCM4.3 | 第71-75页 |
| 5.6 Summary | 第75-76页 |
| Chapter 6 STREAMFLOW RESPONSE OF HEC-HMS TO OUTPUT OF REGCM4.3UNDER THE AR5 SCENARIOS | 第76-97页 |
| 6.1 Background | 第76-77页 |
| 6.2 HEC-HMS Input Data and Methodology | 第77-82页 |
| 6.3 Bias Correction of RegCM4.3 Output data | 第82-83页 |
| 6.4 Climate Change Projections in the NUIB | 第83-86页 |
| 6.5 The HEC-HMS Calibration and Validation | 第86-90页 |
| 6.6 Projected Changes in Mean Monthly and Seasonal Streamflow | 第90-94页 |
| 6.7 Temporal Shift in Peak Flows | 第94页 |
| 6.8 Variation in the Flow Duration Curve (FDC) for Low, Medium and HighFlows | 第94-95页 |
| 6.9 Summary | 第95-97页 |
| Chapter 7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS | 第97-100页 |
| 7.1 Conclusions | 第97-99页 |
| 7.2 Recommendations | 第99-100页 |
| REFERENCES | 第100-117页 |
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS | 第117-118页 |
| PERSONAL STATEMENT | 第118-119页 |
| LIST OF PUBLICATIONS | 第119页 |
