| Abstract in Chinese | 第11-13页 |
| Abstract in English | 第13-15页 |
| 1 Introduction | 第17-26页 |
| 1.1 Basis for setting subject | 第17-18页 |
| 1.2 Purpose and significance of research | 第18页 |
| 1.3 Summary of local and international research | 第18-23页 |
| 1.3.1 Study on climatic variables and hydrological characteristics | 第18-19页 |
| 1.3.2 Study on projection of climate variables | 第19-20页 |
| 1.3.3 Study on application and reliability of general circulation models | 第20页 |
| 1.3.4 Study on drought behavior | 第20-22页 |
| 1.3.5 Study on application of drought indexes for projection of dry periods | 第22-23页 |
| 1.4 The main study content and technology route | 第23-26页 |
| 1.4.1 The main study content | 第23-24页 |
| 1.4.2 The technology route | 第24-26页 |
| 2 Assessment the impact of snow cover and climatic variables on river stream flow in theSonghua River Basin | 第26-37页 |
| 2.1 Research area and data sets | 第27-29页 |
| 2.1.1 Research area | 第27-28页 |
| 2.1.2 Data sets | 第28-29页 |
| 2.2 Methods | 第29-31页 |
| 2.2.1 Mann-Kendall' s trend test | 第30页 |
| 2.2.2 Sen's Slope estimator | 第30-31页 |
| 2.3 Results and discussion | 第31-35页 |
| 2.3.1 Snow cover trend in the Songhua River Basin | 第31-33页 |
| 2.3.2 Stream flow trend analysis | 第33-34页 |
| 2.3.3 Correlation between climate variables, stream flow and snow cover | 第34-35页 |
| 2.4 Brief summary of this chapter | 第35-37页 |
| 3 Trends assessemnt of climate variables for the 21st century over the Songhua RiverBasin | 第37-47页 |
| 3.1 Data sets | 第38-39页 |
| 3.2 Methods | 第39-40页 |
| 3.2.1 Downscaling techniques | 第39-40页 |
| 3.2.2 Statistical indicators | 第40页 |
| 3.3 Results and analysis | 第40-43页 |
| 3.3.1 Comparison of simulated model values with observed data | 第40-42页 |
| 3.3.2 Projection of precipitation and surface area temperature | 第42-43页 |
| 3.4 Discussion | 第43-46页 |
| 3.5 Brief summary of this chapter | 第46-47页 |
| 4 Assesment of stream flow variations and drought in the Songhua River Basin | 第47-64页 |
| 4.1 Data sets | 第47-48页 |
| 4.2 Methods | 第48-51页 |
| 4.2.1 Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Tool | 第48-49页 |
| 4.2.2 Statistical analysis | 第49页 |
| 4.2.3 Climate change scenarios | 第49-50页 |
| 4.2.4 Drought indexes | 第50-51页 |
| 4.2.5 Theory of Run | 第51页 |
| 4.3 Results and discussion | 第51-63页 |
| 4.3.1 Evaluation of SRES-A1B and SRES-A2 | 第51页 |
| 4.3.2 WEAP performance evaluation based on APHRODITE and observed precipitationdata | 第51-54页 |
| 4.3.3 Historical trend and impact of climate change on stream flow | 第54-57页 |
| 4.3.4 Historical drought behavior of stream flow | 第57-58页 |
| 4.3.5 Stream flow drought conditions in 21st century | 第58-59页 |
| 4.3.6 Risk assessment of drought events | 第59-63页 |
| 4.4 Brief summary for this chapter | 第63-64页 |
| 5 Evaluation of hydrological models using ensembles of GCMs in the Songhua RiverBasin | 第64-75页 |
| 5.1 Data sets | 第65页 |
| 5.2 Methods | 第65-69页 |
| 5.2.1 Linear scaling method | 第65-67页 |
| 5.2.2 Hydrological models | 第67-69页 |
| 5.3 Results and discussions | 第69-74页 |
| 5.3.1 Performance evaluation of raw general circulation models (GCMs) | 第69-70页 |
| 5.3.2 Performance evaluation of GCMs by reformulated linear scaling method | 第70-71页 |
| 5.3.3 Calibration and validation of hydrological models using observational data | 第71-72页 |
| 5.3.4 Comparison between hydrological models (GR4J, WEAP, and NAM) | 第72-74页 |
| 5.4 Brief summary of this chapter | 第74-75页 |
| 6 Extreme precipitation and drought monitoring using GCMs and pan evaporation-based drought indexes in the Songhua River Basin | 第75-92页 |
| 6.1 Methods | 第78-80页 |
| 6.1.1 Selection of indexes | 第78-80页 |
| 6.1.2 Downscaling method | 第80页 |
| 6.2 Results and analysis | 第80-90页 |
| 6.2.1 Performance evaluation of GCM-based regional calculated precipitation indexesand average trends analysis on annual scales | 第80-84页 |
| 6.2.2 Station based trends analysis in extreme precipitation indexes on annual scales | 第84-85页 |
| 6.2.3 Comparison among drought Indexes | 第85-90页 |
| 6.3 Discussion | 第90-91页 |
| 6.4 Brief summary of this chapter | 第91-92页 |
| 7 Drought characteristics analysis using multi-indexes and ensembles of GeneralCirculation Models in the Songhua River Basin | 第92-110页 |
| 7.1 Methods | 第93-95页 |
| 7.1.1 Statistical downscaling by Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) | 第93-94页 |
| 7.1.2 Drought indexes | 第94页 |
| 7.1.3 Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) | 第94页 |
| 7.1.4 Drought determining criterion | 第94-95页 |
| 7.1.5 Potential contributors | 第95页 |
| 7.2 Results and discussions | 第95-108页 |
| 7.2.1 Historical drought behaviour analysis | 第95-100页 |
| 7.2.2 Evaluation of general circulation models (GCMs) | 第100页 |
| 7.2.3 Future drought episodes identification under Representative ConcentrationPathways (RCPs) scenario | 第100-106页 |
| 7.2.4 Duration identification of future drought episodes under RepresentativeConcentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario | 第106页 |
| 7.2.5 Impact assessment of of potential contributor on drought behaviour | 第106-107页 |
| 7.2.6 Multi-indexes performance assessment | 第107-108页 |
| 7.3 Brief summary of this chapter | 第108-110页 |
| 8 Performance evaluation of gridded precipitation data products over Heilongjiang Province in China | 第110-129页 |
| 8.1 Research area and data sets | 第111-113页 |
| 8.1.1 Research area | 第111-112页 |
| 8.1.2 Data sets | 第112-113页 |
| 8.2 Methods | 第113-114页 |
| 8.2.1 Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) | 第113-114页 |
| 8.2.2 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) | 第114页 |
| 8.3 Results and discussions | 第114-126页 |
| 8.3.1 Comparison of gridded data products with observed data | 第114-116页 |
| 8.3.2 Performance evaluation of precipitation data products based on precipitationconcentration index analysis | 第116-120页 |
| 8.3.3 Performance evaluation of precipitation data products based on drought frequencyanalysis | 第120-126页 |
| 8.4 Brief summary for this chapter | 第126-129页 |
| 9 Conclusions and prospects | 第129-134页 |
| 9.1 Conclusions | 第129-131页 |
| 9.2 Novelty points | 第131-132页 |
| 9.3 Prospects | 第132-134页 |
| Acknowledgement | 第134-135页 |
| References | 第135-155页 |
| Papers published in the periods of Ph D education | 第155-157页 |
