| ABSTRACT | 第1-6页 |
| 摘要 | 第6-7页 |
| Copyright Page | 第7-8页 |
| Dedicated | 第8-9页 |
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS | 第9-10页 |
| Content | 第10-14页 |
| CHAPTER Ⅰ: INTRODUCTION | 第14-22页 |
| 1. Introduction on Debt | 第14-15页 |
| 2. Definition of Debt | 第15-20页 |
| ·Concept of Debt | 第15-18页 |
| ·Measurement of Debt | 第18-19页 |
| Accounting | 第18-19页 |
| Debt Ratio | 第19页 |
| ·Debt Service Ratio | 第19-20页 |
| 3. Purpose and Scope of the Study and Research Questions | 第20-22页 |
| CHAPTER Ⅱ: WHY DEBT? A THEORETICAL ARGUMENTATION | 第22-30页 |
| 1. Introduction | 第22-24页 |
| ·Why to Borrow? | 第22-24页 |
| ·When to Borrow? | 第24页 |
| 2. Necessity of Public Financing: Debt,Tax or Seigniorage? | 第24-30页 |
| ·Fiscal Neutrality and Ricardian Equivalence:Pros and Cons | 第25-28页 |
| ·Should the Government tax or borrow? | 第28页 |
| ·Balance Sheet of Government as a feature of public economics | 第28-30页 |
| CHAPTER Ⅲ: DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS & LITERATURE REVIEW | 第30-53页 |
| 1. Introduction | 第30页 |
| 2. Definition | 第30-33页 |
| How much debt is too much? | 第32-33页 |
| 3. Assessing Debt Sustainability | 第33-42页 |
| ·Assessing debt to Avoid Risks | 第36-38页 |
| ·Integrating Debt Issues into policy advice | 第38-41页 |
| ·Debt Sustainability and Debt Optimality: Public debt Management | 第41-42页 |
| 4. External Debt Sustainability Analysis | 第42-46页 |
| ·Basic Concept | 第43页 |
| ·Solvency | 第43-44页 |
| ·Liquidity | 第44-45页 |
| ·How is debt sustainability assessed? | 第45页 |
| ·Measures of Indebtedness | 第45-46页 |
| ·Measures of Capacity to Repay | 第46页 |
| 5. Debt Burden Indicators | 第46-48页 |
| ·Stock-Based Indicators | 第46-47页 |
| ·Flow-Based Indicators | 第47-48页 |
| 6. What are the main drivers of debt dynamics? | 第48-49页 |
| 7. Assessing Debt Sustainability in the Context of Fund Program Monitoring and Country Surveillance | 第49页 |
| 8. Debt Sustainability Analysis(DSA)Framework for Market Access countries | 第49-50页 |
| 9. DSA Framework for Low-Income Countries | 第50-51页 |
| 10. Literature Review on Outstanding External Debt | 第51-53页 |
| CHAPTER Ⅳ: DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS | 第53-76页 |
| 1. Introduction | 第53页 |
| 2. Descriptive Explanation of External Debt | 第53-76页 |
| ·Data on Developed Countries' Debt Level | 第55-57页 |
| ·Data on Developing Countries' Debt Level | 第57-63页 |
| ·Data on Debt Service to Exports ratio show promise for Sub-Saharan Africa | 第58-59页 |
| ·Developing Countries' Debt Stock and Flows in 2011 | 第59-63页 |
| ·External Debt Burden of Developing Countries-selected indicators | 第63-66页 |
| ·The Rapid Growth in Private Sector External Debt | 第66-68页 |
| ·Aggregate Net Capital Flows to Developing Regions | 第68-70页 |
| ·Global Trends in External Debt and Public Sector Debt | 第70-73页 |
| ·World Bank External and Public Debt Data | 第73-76页 |
| CHAPTER Ⅴ: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS & DISCUS SION ON DETERMINANTSOF OUTSTANDING EXTERNAL DEBT | 第76-87页 |
| 1. Introduction | 第76页 |
| 2. Methodology and Model Specification | 第76-80页 |
| ·Hypothesis | 第76页 |
| ·Model Estimation Technique | 第76-77页 |
| ·Model Specification | 第77-80页 |
| Final Model | 第78页 |
| Definition | 第78-80页 |
| 3. Data Description | 第80-81页 |
| 4. Empirical Findings and Interpretations | 第81-85页 |
| 5. Conclusion | 第85-87页 |
| CHAPTER Ⅵ: CONCLUSION & POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR TIMOR-LESTE | 第87-127页 |
| 1. Summary | 第87-89页 |
| Answers to the Research Questions | 第87-89页 |
| 2. Policy Implications for Timor-Leste | 第89-127页 |
| ·Timor-Leste's Economy | 第89-101页 |
| ·Introduction | 第89-90页 |
| ·Trade Volume Between China-Timor Leste | 第90页 |
| ·Overview of the Economy and Social Situation of Timor-Leste | 第90-97页 |
| ·Social Protection Index | 第90-92页 |
| ·Opportunities and Challenges | 第92-93页 |
| ·Development Advantages | 第92-93页 |
| ·Development Disadvantages | 第93页 |
| ·Some Economic Figures | 第93-94页 |
| ·Determinants of Economic Growth in Timor-Leste | 第94-97页 |
| ·Physical Investment/Capital Stock | 第94-95页 |
| ·Total Factor Productivity(TFP) | 第95页 |
| ·Projection of the Economic Growth of Timor-Leste | 第95-96页 |
| ·Conclusion for Structure of Economic Growth | 第96-97页 |
| ·Fiscal Sustainability Scenarios | 第97-98页 |
| ·Balance of Payment | 第98-99页 |
| ·International Trade(Export and Import Status of Timor-Leste) | 第99-101页 |
| ·Timor-Leste's Financial Development Planning | 第101-111页 |
| ·No Central Bank in the real sense | 第102-103页 |
| ·Only Three Foreign Commercial Banks in the Banking System | 第103-104页 |
| ·Weak Financial Foundation | 第104页 |
| ·Mal-Developed Finance | 第104-105页 |
| ·Lack of Internal Motivation | 第105-106页 |
| ·Shortage of Independent Strategic Plans for Monetary and Financial System | 第106页 |
| ·Basic Principles and Contents for Financial Development in Timor-Leste | 第106-107页 |
| ·Financial Institutions | 第107-108页 |
| ·Financial Market | 第108页 |
| ·Financial Regulation | 第108页 |
| ·Establishing an Independent Monetary System | 第108-111页 |
| ·Setting up the Central Bank independent from finance | 第108-109页 |
| ·Issuing Independent Fiat Money | 第109页 |
| ·Selecting an exchange rate system in favor of Timor-Leste | 第109-111页 |
| ·Choosing US Dollar | 第110页 |
| ·Choosing Renminbi | 第110-111页 |
| ·Timor-Leste's Debt Status | 第111-121页 |
| ·Government's Current Loan/Debt | 第111-112页 |
| ·Should Timor-Leste Go Into Debt? | 第112-119页 |
| ·IMF's Recommendation to Timor-Leste | 第119-121页 |
| ·Conclusion and Policy Recommendation to Government of Timor-Leste | 第121-125页 |
| ·Contribution to the Study(Innovation) | 第125-126页 |
| ·Shortcomings for improvement and further research | 第126-127页 |
| REFERENCES | 第127-130页 |
| APPENDIX | 第130-134页 |
