| 中文摘要 | 第4-9页 |
| ABSTRACT | 第9-10页 |
| ABBREVIATIONS | 第21-22页 |
| Chapter 1:INTRODUCTION | 第22-37页 |
| 1.1 General Background | 第22-25页 |
| 1.2 An Introduction to Hybrid Rice | 第25-26页 |
| 1.3 Inbred Rice versus Hybrid Rice:Why Risks in Hybrid Rice Production in Bangladesh? | 第26-30页 |
| 1.4 Policy Background on Hybrid Rice Promotion in Bangladesh | 第30-32页 |
| 1.5 Importance of Hybrid Rice Research in Bangladesh | 第32-34页 |
| 1.6 Significance of the Study | 第34-37页 |
| Chapter 2:LITERATURE REVIEWS | 第37-62页 |
| 2.1 Risk and Vulnerability | 第37-38页 |
| 2.2 Risks in Agriculture | 第38-40页 |
| 2.2.1 Production or Yield Risk | 第38-39页 |
| 2.2.2 Market Risk or Price risks | 第39页 |
| 2.2.3 Institutional or Policy Risk | 第39页 |
| 2.2.4 Human or Personal Risks | 第39-40页 |
| 2.2.5 Financial Risks | 第40页 |
| 2.3 Risks/ Sources of Risks in Agriculture in Bangladesh | 第40-45页 |
| 2.3.1 Production Risks | 第40-41页 |
| 2.3.2 Market/ Price Risks | 第41-42页 |
| 2.3.3 Policy/ Institutional Risks | 第42-43页 |
| 2.3.4 Personal Risks | 第43-44页 |
| 2.3.5 Financial Risks | 第44-45页 |
| 2.4 Risk Management in Agriculture | 第45-51页 |
| 2.4.1 Risk Management Process | 第45-49页 |
| 2.4.2 Risk Management Strategies | 第49-51页 |
| 2.5 Risks in Hybrid Rice Production in Bangladesh | 第51-52页 |
| 2.6 Common Risk Management Strategies used by Farmers in Bangladesh | 第52-54页 |
| 2.6.1 Ex ante risk management strategies | 第52-53页 |
| 2.6.2 Ex post risk management strategies | 第53-54页 |
| 2.7 Application of Fuzzy-Likert Scale to Measure Perceived Risk | 第54-59页 |
| 2.7.1 Concept of Fuzzy Sets | 第55-56页 |
| 2.7.2 Triangular Fuzzy Numbers and Their Operations | 第56-57页 |
| 2.7.3 Fuzzy-Likert Scales in Assessment of Likelihood and Severity of Risks | 第57-58页 |
| 2.7.4 Defuzzification of Fuzzy Numbers | 第58-59页 |
| 2.8 Review of Relevant Studies | 第59-62页 |
| Chapter 3:CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES | 第62-81页 |
| 3.1 Objectives of the Study | 第62页 |
| 3.2 Research Content and Questions | 第62-64页 |
| 3.3 Definition of Important Terms | 第64-65页 |
| 3.4 Scope and Limitation of the Study | 第65-67页 |
| 3.5 Research Methodologies | 第67-81页 |
| 3.5.1 Risk assessment | 第67-77页 |
| 3.5.2 Risk Management | 第77-78页 |
| 3.5.3 Instruments for Data Collection | 第78-79页 |
| 3.5.4 Data Processing and Analysis | 第79-81页 |
| Chapter 4:RISK ASSESSMENT FOR HYBRID RICE PRODUCTION | 第81-107页 |
| 4.1 Identification of Risks | 第81页 |
| 4.2 Prioritization of Risks: Farmers Level Survey | 第81-89页 |
| 4.2.1 Socio-demographic Characteristics of the Farmers | 第81-85页 |
| 4.2.2 Risks in Hybrid Rice Production | 第85-86页 |
| 4.2.3 The Relationship between Socio-demographic Characteristics of the Hybrid Rice Farmers and their Perceived Risk Score | 第86-89页 |
| 4.2.4 Risk Ranking (Farmers Level Survey) | 第89页 |
| 4.3 Prioritization of Risks: Experts' Level Survey | 第89-91页 |
| 4.3.1 Characteristics of Expert Members | 第89-91页 |
| 4.3.2 Risk Ranking (By the Experts' Survey) | 第91页 |
| 4.4 Risk Evaluation and Catastrophic Risk Identification | 第91页 |
| 4.5 Results and Discussions on Key/ Catastrophic Risks | 第91-104页 |
| 4.5.1 Risk 1: Volatility of Hybrid Rice Price | 第91-92页 |
| 4.5.2 Risk 2:Rejection of Hybrid Rice Cultivation due to High Seed Price | 第92-94页 |
| 4.5.3 Risk 3:Massive Germination Failure of Purchased Fake Seeds | 第94-95页 |
| 4.5.4 Risk 4:Sudden Crisis of Liquidity during Hybrid Rice Cultivation | 第95-96页 |
| 4.5.5 Risk 5:Corruption in Public Procurement (PP) of Hybrid Rice | 第96-98页 |
| 4.5.6 Risk 6:Uncertainty of Supports from Extension Agents | 第98-99页 |
| 4.5.7 Risk 7:Crop Failure due to High Diseases and Pests Infestation | 第99-100页 |
| 4.5.8 Risk 8:Quality Seed Crisis during Sowing Seasons | 第100页 |
| 4.5.9 Risk 9: Economic Losses due to Presence of Middlemen in Hybrid Rice Marketing Channel | 第100-102页 |
| 4.5.10 Risk 10:Unexpected Yield Performance of Hybrid Varieties | 第102-103页 |
| 4.5.11 Risk 11:Complication in Loan Allotment Process from Bank | 第103页 |
| 4.5.12 Risk 12: Crop Failure due to Poor Production Knowledge of Farmers | 第103-104页 |
| 4.5.13 Risk 13:Poor Demand for Hybrid Rice due to Overproduction of Inbred Rice | 第104页 |
| 4.6 Key Risks and their Types: An Analysis | 第104-105页 |
| 4.7 Experts' Survey versus Farmers' Survey:Why Differences in Results? | 第105-106页 |
| 4.8 Effect of Risks on Different Level Households | 第106页 |
| 4.9 Chapter Summary | 第106-107页 |
| Chapter 5:RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY | 第107-136页 |
| 5 .1 Risk Management Strategy Development | 第107页 |
| 5.2 Characteristics of the Experts who Participated in Workshop | 第107页 |
| 5.3 Characteristics of the Experts who Participated in Experts' Survey Ⅱ | 第107-108页 |
| 5.4 Risk Management Strategies for a Specific Risk | 第108-129页 |
| 5.4.1 Risk 1:Volatility of Hybrid Rice Price | 第109-110页 |
| 5.4.2 Risk 2: Rejection of Hybrid Rice Cultivation due to High Seed Price | 第110-111页 |
| 5.4.3 Risk 3: Massive Germination Failure of Purchased Fake Seeds | 第111-113页 |
| 5.4.4 Risk 4: Sudden Crisis of Liquidity during Hybrid Rice Cultivation | 第113-114页 |
| 5.4.5 Risk 5:Corruption in Public Procurement (PP) of Hybrid Rice | 第114-116页 |
| 5.4.6 Risk 6: Uncertainty of Supports from Extension Agents | 第116-117页 |
| 5.4.7 Risk 7: Crop Failure due to High Diseases and Pests Infestation | 第117-119页 |
| 5.4.8 Risk 8: Quality Seed Crisis during Sowing Seasons | 第119-122页 |
| 5.4.9 Risk 9:Economic Losses due to Presence of Middlemen in Hybrid Rice Marketing Channel | 第122-123页 |
| 5.4.10 Risk 10: Unexpected Yield Performance of Hybrid Varieties | 第123-125页 |
| 5.4.11 Risk 11:Complication in Loan Allotment Process from Bank | 第125-126页 |
| 5.4.12 Risk 12: Crop Failure due to Poor Production Knowledge of Farmers | 第126-127页 |
| 5.4.13 Risk 13: Poor Demand for Hybrid Rice due to Overproduction of Inbred Rice | 第127-129页 |
| 5.5 Proposed Framework for Hybrid Rice Production and Risk Management in Bangladesh | 第129-133页 |
| 5.6 Discussion for Future Research | 第133-135页 |
| 5.7 Chapter Summary | 第135-136页 |
| Chapter 6:CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS | 第136-143页 |
| 6.1 General and Methodological Reflections | 第136-137页 |
| 6.2 Conclusion | 第137-140页 |
| 6.3 General and Policy Recommendations | 第140-142页 |
| 6.4 Recommendation for Further Study | 第142-143页 |
| REFERENCES | 第143-166页 |
| APPENDICES | 第166页 |
| Appendix-Ⅰ:Key Informant Interview Guide for Scientists/ Extension Experts/Academician/ Market Specialists | 第166-168页 |
| Appendix-Ⅱ: Key Informant Interview Guide for Farmers/ Local leaders/other Local Actors in Hybrid Rice Production | 第168-169页 |
| Appendix-Ⅲ: Focus Group Discussion (FGD) | 第169-170页 |
| Appendix-Ⅳ: Structured Interview Schedule for the Study (Farmers' level survey) | 第170-173页 |
| Appendix-Ⅴ: Structured Interview Schedule for Experts' Survey Ⅰ | 第173-175页 |
| Appendix-Ⅵ: Structured Interview Schedule for Expert Survey Ⅱ | 第175-181页 |
| Appendix Ⅶ:Frequency Distribution (n) of Farmers' Level Survey on Risk Factors 160Appendix Ⅷ: Frequency Distribution (n) of Expert Survey Result on Risk Factors | 第181-183页 |
| Appendix Ⅷ Frequency Distribution(n) of Expert Survey Result on Risk Factors | 第183-185页 |
| Appendix Ⅸ:Frequency Distribution of Different Risk Management Strategies (expert's survey Ⅱ) | 第185-190页 |
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENT | 第190-192页 |
| PUBLISHED PAPERS | 第192-194页 |
| CURRICULUM VITAE OF AKM KANAK PERVEZ | 第194-195页 |
