| 摘要 | 第7-8页 |
| Abstract | 第8页 |
| List of Abbreviations | 第22-24页 |
| CHAPTER ONE Technical Issue and Significance | 第24-32页 |
| 1.1 Background | 第24-25页 |
| 1.2 Problem Statement | 第25-26页 |
| 1.3 General Goal of the Study | 第26页 |
| 1.4 Specific Objectives of the Study | 第26-27页 |
| 1.5 Research questions and Hypotheses | 第27页 |
| 1.5.1 Objective one: Research questions | 第27页 |
| 1.5.2 Objective Two: Research questions | 第27页 |
| 1.5.3 Objective Three: Hypothesis: | 第27页 |
| 1.5.4 Objective Four: Hypothesis | 第27页 |
| 1.5.5 Objective Four: Research Question | 第27页 |
| 1.6 Significance of the Study | 第27-28页 |
| 1.7 Conceptual Framework for a Sustainable Agricultural Insurance ProgramImplementation | 第28-31页 |
| 1.8 Organization of Thesis | 第31-32页 |
| CHAPTER TWO Literature Review | 第32-43页 |
| 2.1 Introduction | 第32页 |
| 2.2 Index Insurance from Global Perspectives | 第32-34页 |
| 2.2.1 Index Insurance in Developed Countries | 第32-33页 |
| 2.2.2 Index Insurance in Low and Upper Middle Income Countries | 第33页 |
| 2.2.3 Experience of Index Insurance from Developing Countries | 第33-34页 |
| 2.3 Role of Agricultural Insurance | 第34-35页 |
| 2.4 Limitations of Agricultural Insurance | 第35-36页 |
| 2.5 Why Traditional Insurance Product not Suitable in Low Income Countries? | 第36页 |
| 2.6 What Is Index Insurance? | 第36-37页 |
| 2.7 How Does WII Work? | 第37页 |
| 2.8 Where Is WII Mostly Useful? | 第37-38页 |
| 2.9 Advantages of WII | 第38-39页 |
| 2.10 Challenges of WII | 第39-40页 |
| 2.11 Agricultural Risks and Shocks in Tanzania | 第40页 |
| 2.12 Efforts of Financial Institutions to Reduce Famers Risk In Tanzania | 第40-41页 |
| 2.13 Agricultural Insurance Progress Tanzania | 第41-42页 |
| 2.14 Agricultural Insurance Uptake in Tanzania | 第42-43页 |
| CHAPTER THREE Methodology | 第43-53页 |
| 3.1 Introduction | 第43页 |
| 3.2 Description of Study Area | 第43-46页 |
| 3.2.1 Tanzania: Location | 第43-44页 |
| 3.2.2 Tanzania Economy - Overview | 第44-46页 |
| 3.3 Mara Region | 第46页 |
| 3.3.1 Location and Climate | 第46页 |
| 3.3.2 Population and Economic Activities in Mara | 第46页 |
| 3.4 Bunda District | 第46-48页 |
| 3.4.1 Location and Climate of Bunda | 第46页 |
| 3.4.2 Population and Economic Activities | 第46-48页 |
| 3.5 Research design | 第48页 |
| 3.6 Sampling Frame, Sampling Procedure and Sample Size | 第48-49页 |
| 3.6.1 Sampling Frame | 第48页 |
| 3.6.2 Sample Size | 第48-49页 |
| 3.6.3 Sampling Procedure | 第49页 |
| 3.6.4 Sampling Unit | 第49页 |
| 3.7 Primary Data Collection | 第49-51页 |
| 3.7.1 Tools Used for Data Collection | 第49-50页 |
| 3.7.2 Pre-Testing | 第50页 |
| 3.7.3 Household Data Collection | 第50-51页 |
| 3.8 Secondary Data Collection | 第51页 |
| 3.9 Data Analysis | 第51-52页 |
| 3.10 Study Limitations | 第52-53页 |
| CHAPTER FOUR Weather Index Insurance Pilot Program Implementation: anUnderstanding from Cotton Growers’ Focus Groups in Bunda | 第53-72页 |
| 4.1 Background | 第53-54页 |
| 4.2 Theoretical Background on Implementation of Risk Hedging Programs | 第54-56页 |
| 4.2.1 Famers’ Risks, Consequences and Coping Mechanisms | 第54-55页 |
| 4.2.2 Review on Implementation of Agricultural Insurance | 第55-56页 |
| 4.3 Specific Study Objective | 第56页 |
| 4.4 Research Questions | 第56-57页 |
| 4.5 Problem Rationale of the Study Objective | 第57页 |
| 4.6 Materials, Participants and Methods | 第57-58页 |
| 4.7 Interview structure | 第58页 |
| 4.8 Focus Group Interviews | 第58-59页 |
| 4.9 Analysis | 第59页 |
| 4.10 Socio-Economic Characteristics of Heads of Agricultural Households in theArea of Program Implementation | 第59-70页 |
| 4.10.1 Gender of Household Heads | 第60页 |
| 4.10.2 Age Groups of Respondents | 第60-61页 |
| 4.10.3 Education Level of Respondents | 第61页 |
| 4.10.4 Family Size of Households | 第61-62页 |
| 4.10.5 Land Sizes for Cotton Farms of Households | 第62-63页 |
| 4.10.6 Household Source of Livelihood | 第63页 |
| 4.10.7 Farmers’ Income from Cotton Harvest in 2013 Season | 第63-64页 |
| 4.10.8 Risk Faced by Farmers | 第64-66页 |
| 4.10.9 Responses of Households on Yield Losses | 第66页 |
| 4.10.10 Off-Farm Activities in the Area | 第66-67页 |
| 4.10.11 Perceived Weather Risks and the Existence of Drought Insurance in theStudy Area | 第67页 |
| 4.10.12 Structure and Operationalization of Drought Insurance Program in Bunda | 第67-68页 |
| 4.10.13 Compensation from Drought Insurance | 第68-69页 |
| 4.10.14 Benefits and Challenges | 第69-70页 |
| 4.11 Discussion | 第70-71页 |
| 4.12 Conclusion | 第71-72页 |
| CHAPTER FIVE Attitude of Cotton Growers towards Drought Insurance in Tanzania | 第72-86页 |
| 5.1 Introduction | 第72-73页 |
| 5.2 Theoretical Background | 第73-74页 |
| 5.3 Specific Study Objective | 第74页 |
| 5.4 Research Questions | 第74-75页 |
| 5.5 Methodology | 第75-76页 |
| 5.5.1 Study Area and Sampling | 第75页 |
| 5.5.2 Construction of Likert Scale and Questionnaire Administration | 第75-76页 |
| 5.6 Why Factor Analysis? | 第76页 |
| 5.7 Modelling the Factor Analysis Latent Variable | 第76-77页 |
| 5.8 Performing Factor Analysis | 第77页 |
| 5.9 Results | 第77-83页 |
| 5.9.1 Reliability Test and Sample Adequacy | 第77-78页 |
| 5.9.2 Multicolleniarity Test | 第78-79页 |
| 5.9.3 Performance of the Model | 第79-80页 |
| 5.9.4 Factor-Variables Relationship | 第80-81页 |
| 5.9.5 Internal Consistence of Scale Variables | 第81页 |
| 5.9.6 Factors Affecting Attitude of Farmers towards Drought Insurance | 第81-83页 |
| 5.10 Discussion | 第83-84页 |
| 5.11 Reasons for Negative Attitudes | 第84页 |
| 5.12 Conclusion | 第84-86页 |
| CHAPTER SIX Factors Affecting Holding of Drought Insurance by Smallholders inBunda, Tanzania | 第86-98页 |
| 6.1 Introduction | 第86-87页 |
| 6.2 Theoretical Background | 第87-89页 |
| 6.2.1 Uptake of Agricultural Insurance | 第87-88页 |
| 6.2.2 Factors Affecting Uptake of Agricultural Insurance | 第88-89页 |
| 6.3 Specific Study Objective | 第89页 |
| 6.4 Hypothesis | 第89-90页 |
| 6.4.1 Null Hypothesis | 第89-90页 |
| 6.4.2 Alternative Hypothesis | 第90页 |
| 6.5 Test Statistics | 第90页 |
| 6.6 Rejection Region | 第90页 |
| 6.7 Methods | 第90-92页 |
| 6.7.1 Model Specification | 第90-91页 |
| 6.7.2 Testing for Correlation and Multicolleniarity | 第91-92页 |
| 6.8 Results | 第92-96页 |
| 6.8.1 Strength of Model in Prediction | 第92-94页 |
| 6.8.2 Classification Table | 第94-95页 |
| 6.8.3 Model Accuracy | 第95页 |
| 6.8.4 Variables in the Equation | 第95-96页 |
| 6.9 Discussion | 第96-97页 |
| 6.10 Conclusion and Recommendations | 第97-98页 |
| CHAPTER SEVEN Sustainability of Experimental Drought Insurance in Tanzania: Analysis of Smallholders' Willingness to Proceed With Contracts | 第98-107页 |
| 7.1 Introduction | 第98-100页 |
| 7.2 Specific Study Objectives | 第100页 |
| 7.3 Research Questions | 第100页 |
| 7.4 Hypothesis | 第100页 |
| 7.4.1 Null Hypothesis | 第100页 |
| 7.4.2 Alternative Hypothesis | 第100页 |
| 7.5 Methodology | 第100-102页 |
| 7.5.1 Sampling and Data Collection | 第100-101页 |
| 7.5.2 Modelling Willingness to Hold Insurance | 第101-102页 |
| 7.6 Results and Discussion | 第102页 |
| 7.6.1 Model’s Strength and Testing of Hypothesis | 第102页 |
| 7.7 Willingness to Continue with the Drought Insurance Contract | 第102-103页 |
| 7.8 Factors Influencing Willingness to Continue With Drought Insurance Contract | 第103-105页 |
| 7.9 Preparedness of Public and Private Sector to Offer Agricultural Insurance | 第105-106页 |
| 7.10 Conclusion | 第106页 |
| 7.11 Recommendations | 第106-107页 |
| CHAPTER EIGHT Overall Conclusion and Policy Recommendations | 第107-111页 |
| 8.1 Introduction | 第107页 |
| 8.2 Summary and Conclusions | 第107-108页 |
| 8.3 Policy Recommendations | 第108-109页 |
| 8.4 Area for Further Research | 第109-111页 |
| References | 第111-120页 |
| Appendices | 第120-156页 |
| Information on Published Papers | 第156-157页 |
| Government’s Approval to carry out a Research on Drought Insurance in Bunda District | 第157-158页 |
| Acknowledgements | 第158-160页 |
| Biographical Sketch | 第160页 |
