| Acknowledgement | 第5-6页 |
| 摘要 | 第6-7页 |
| ABSTRACT | 第7-8页 |
| PREFACE | 第9-12页 |
| 1 INTRODUCTION | 第12-22页 |
| 1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND | 第12-14页 |
| 1.2 GENERAL OBJECTIVE | 第14-15页 |
| 1.3 SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES | 第15页 |
| 1.4 MOTIVATION | 第15-19页 |
| 1.5 ORGANIZATION OF THESIS | 第19-20页 |
| 1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH | 第20-22页 |
| 2 | 第22-29页 |
| 2.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND ANALYSIS OF THE PROJECT PUERTO CABELLO-BARQUISIMETO | 第22-23页 |
| 2.2 MAIN CONTENT OF THE ENGINEERING PROJECT AND ITS SPHERE | 第23-29页 |
| 2.2.1 General situation of the Existing Railways | 第23-25页 |
| 2.2.2 The General Principles for Preparing the Engineering Project | 第25-26页 |
| 2.2.3 The General Principles for Preparing the Engineering Project | 第26-27页 |
| 2.2.4 Main Technical Characteristics of the Project | 第27-29页 |
| 3 | 第29-38页 |
| 3.1 REASONABLE TRANSPORT VOLUME AND TRANSPORTATION ORGANIZATION THE LINEPUERTO CABELLO -BARQUISIMETO | 第29-38页 |
| STATISTICS OF THE CURRENT TRANSPORT VOLUME | 第29-31页 |
| 3.1.1 ANALYSIS OF THE VOLUME OF RAIL TRANSPORT | 第31-32页 |
| 3.1.2 Analysis of the Influences to the Capacity | 第32-33页 |
| 3.1.3 Transportation Organization Project | 第33页 |
| 3.1.4 Transportation Organization Project | 第33-36页 |
| 3.1.5 Current Conditions of the Lines | 第36-38页 |
| 4 | 第38-48页 |
| 4.1 LIFE CYCLE RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK FOR PPP RAILWAY PROJECT: PUERTO CABELLO-BARQUISIMETO | 第38-48页 |
| GENERALITIES | 第38-39页 |
| 4.1.1 Life cycle risk | 第39-43页 |
| 4.1.2 Risk analysis | 第43-46页 |
| 4.1.3 SWOTanalysis of the Public Private Partnerships model | 第46-47页 |
| 4.1.4 Dynamic risk management and control | 第47-48页 |
| 5 MONTE CARLO-NPV SIMULATION | 第48-59页 |
| 5.1 | 第48页 |
| 5.1.1 Uncertain in forecasting models | 第48页 |
| 5.1.2 Estimating ranges of values | 第48页 |
| 5.2 METHOD MONTE CARLO-NPV, EXAMPLE | 第48-50页 |
| 5.3 Excel Monte Carlo - NPV (1000 simulation) | 第50-59页 |
| 6 | 第59-62页 |
| 6.1 CONCLUSIONS | 第59-60页 |
| 6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS | 第60-62页 |
| REFERENCES | 第62-64页 |
| TABLE AND FIGURES | 第64-66页 |
| INDEX | 第66-67页 |
| AUTHOR PROFILE AND RESEARCH ACHIEVEMENTS OBTAINED DURING THE STUDY FOR AMASTER'S/DOCTORAL DEGREE | 第67-69页 |
| DATASET FOR THE MASTER'S THESIS | 第69-70页 |
