| 摘要 | 第3-5页 |
| Abstract | 第5-7页 |
| Chapter 1 Introduction | 第10-20页 |
| 1.1 Background and present situation of government debt in China | 第10-12页 |
| 1.2 Objectives and significance of the research | 第12-14页 |
| 1.3 Research approach and thesis structure | 第14-15页 |
| 1.4 Originality and deficiency of the thesis | 第15-20页 |
| Chapter 2 Literature review | 第20-34页 |
| 2.1 Studies about local government debt | 第20-25页 |
| 2.2 Classical theory of local government debt | 第25-28页 |
| 2.3 Research of debt's effect on economic growth | 第28-34页 |
| Chapter 3 Theoretical study of the influence mechanism of government debt oneconomic growth | 第34-43页 |
| 3.1 Effective demand theory | 第34-39页 |
| 3.1.1 Analytical framework of general equilibrium—IS-LM model | 第34-36页 |
| 3.1.2 Introduce government debt into the IS-LM model | 第36-39页 |
| 3.2 Harrod-Domar model and Neo-classical economic growth theory | 第39-43页 |
| 3.2.1 Review of H-D model and neo-classical economic growth theory | 第39-40页 |
| 3.2.2 Introduce government debt into the neo-classical growth theory | 第40-43页 |
| Chapter 4 The design of empirical analysis model | 第43-53页 |
| 4.1 Research ideas | 第43页 |
| 4.2 Principle of this model | 第43-47页 |
| 4.3 The theoretical relationship between local government debt and economicgrowth | 第47-48页 |
| 4.4 The formation of empirical model | 第48-53页 |
| Chapter 5 Empirical study of impacts of provincial government debt oneconomic growth | 第53-65页 |
| 5.1 Descriptive statistical analysis | 第53-54页 |
| 5.2 Correlation analysis | 第54-55页 |
| 5.3 Stationarity test | 第55-56页 |
| 5.4 Panel regression analysis | 第56-60页 |
| 5.5 Threshold panel analysis | 第60-61页 |
| 5.5.1 Threshold effect test | 第60页 |
| 5.5.2 Threshold regression analysis | 第60-61页 |
| 5.6 Regression analysis by region | 第61-65页 |
| 5.6.1 Regression analysis of eastern areas | 第62-63页 |
| 5.6.2 Regression analysis of middle areas | 第63页 |
| 5.6.3 Regression analysis of western areas | 第63-65页 |
| Chapter 6 Conclusion | 第65-75页 |
| 6.1 Conclusion | 第65-66页 |
| 6.2 Implications | 第66-75页 |
| Bibliography | 第75-79页 |
| Acknowledgements | 第79-80页 |
