| 摘要 | 第1-5页 |
| Abstract | 第5-7页 |
| 目录 | 第7-9页 |
| List of Figures | 第9-12页 |
| List of tables and Charts | 第12-13页 |
| Chapter 1 Introduction | 第13-15页 |
| ·Research Purpose | 第13页 |
| ·Scope and Objective of the thesis | 第13-14页 |
| ·Content and the structure of thesis | 第14-15页 |
| Chapter 2 the Background of Load Forecasting | 第15-26页 |
| ·Introduction of Load Forecasting | 第15页 |
| ·Content and methods of Load Forecasting | 第15-19页 |
| ·Content of Load Forecasting | 第15-16页 |
| ·Load forecasting methods | 第16-19页 |
| ·Important factors and requirements for load forecast | 第19-26页 |
| ·Classification of important factors for load forecast | 第19-21页 |
| ·Requirements for load forecast | 第21-26页 |
| Chapter 3 Box Jenkins Model | 第26-43页 |
| ·Box Jenkins method in short-term load forecasting | 第26-37页 |
| ·Introduction of Box Jenkins method | 第26-27页 |
| ·Correlation function | 第27-28页 |
| ·Basic concepts and time series model | 第28-35页 |
| ·The basic step of Box Jenkins method | 第35-37页 |
| ·The application of GARCH Tool Box in Short-term load forecasting | 第37-43页 |
| ·Introduction ofGARCH Tool Box | 第37-38页 |
| ·Average function and variance function | 第38-39页 |
| ·Default model | 第39页 |
| ·The Functions of GARCH BOX | 第39-43页 |
| Chapter 4 The Application of Wavelet Transform | 第43-57页 |
| ·The applications of wavelet transform in signal analysis | 第43-46页 |
| ·Wavelet transform | 第43-45页 |
| ·Wavelet families | 第45-46页 |
| ·The method of Wavelet analysis | 第46-52页 |
| ·Continuous wavelet transform(CWT) | 第46-48页 |
| ·Discrete Wavelet Transform(DWT) | 第48-50页 |
| ·Wavelet package analysis | 第50-51页 |
| ·Wavelet reconstruction | 第51-52页 |
| ·Wavelet Tool Box | 第52-57页 |
| ·Continuous Analysis Using the Command Line | 第52-53页 |
| ·Continuous Analysis Using the Graphical Interface | 第53-55页 |
| ·One Dimensional Discrete Wavelet Analysis | 第55-57页 |
| Chapter 5 The Combined method of Time series and Wavelet Transform in STLF | 第57-86页 |
| ·The knowledge of combined forecast method | 第57-58页 |
| ·The concept of combined forecast method | 第57-58页 |
| ·The principle of combined forecast method | 第58页 |
| ·The affection of factors to combined forecast method | 第58页 |
| ·The combined forecast method between WAVELET -ARIMA(WARIMA) | 第58-60页 |
| ·Introduction | 第58-59页 |
| ·The model of combined forecast method | 第59-60页 |
| ·Simulation results | 第60-86页 |
| ·The forecast result for the next day of Box Jenkins method based on ARIMA model | 第60-64页 |
| ·The forecast result for a week of Box Jenkins method based on ARIMA model | 第64-67页 |
| ·The forecast result for the next day of WARIMA method | 第67-75页 |
| ·The forecast result for week of WARIMA method | 第75-83页 |
| ·The comparison between ARIMA model and combined method which is based on Wavelet-ARIMA | 第83-86页 |
| Chapter 6 Sumary and Prospect | 第86-87页 |
| ·Summary | 第86页 |
| ·Prospect | 第86-87页 |
| References | 第87-91页 |
| Acknowledgement | 第91页 |
