| 中文摘要 | 第9-11页 |
| Abstract | 第11页 |
| Introduction | 第12-16页 |
| 2.1 Why the Forecasting Management as the Central Idea | 第12-13页 |
| 2.2 Setting the Scene | 第13-14页 |
| 2.3 Thesis Topics Development | 第14-16页 |
| A.Literature Review | 第16-57页 |
| 1. Forecasting Process(as a Stand-Alone Entity) | 第16-21页 |
| 1.1 Definition and Main Features | 第16-17页 |
| 1.2 Are the Forecasts a Really Useful Instrument? | 第17-19页 |
| 1.3 Looking Backward:Early Stages and Surrounding Theories | 第19-21页 |
| 1.3.1 The ECR Theories Development | 第20-21页 |
| 2. Forecasting Management inside the Company | 第21-35页 |
| 2.1 The forecasting Management Function | 第21-24页 |
| 2.1.1 The Controversial Role | 第21-22页 |
| 2.1.2 Impact on Company Activities and Forecasting Functions | 第22-24页 |
| 2.2 Who Should Carry the Forecasting Management Out? | 第24-26页 |
| 2.3 Main Factors that Impact on the Process Design | 第26-27页 |
| 2.3.1 Seasonality and Specificity of Items | 第27页 |
| 2.4 Forecasting Techniques | 第27-31页 |
| 2.4.1 The Qualitative Techniques Contribution | 第28-29页 |
| 2.4.2 How to Manage New Clients and New Products | 第29-30页 |
| 2.4.3 The Role of Promotional Plans as Demand Drivers | 第30-31页 |
| 2.5 Problems within Forecasting Execution | 第31-33页 |
| 2.5.1 Recurrent Forecasting Mistakes | 第31-32页 |
| 2.5.2 Forecaster Biases and External Causes | 第32-33页 |
| 2.6 New Forecasting Design against Biases | 第33-35页 |
| 3. Forecasting Performance Measurement | 第35-42页 |
| 3.1 Forecasting Impact Measurement | 第35-36页 |
| 3.2 Impact on Company' Shareholders | 第36-37页 |
| 3.3 Focus on Forecasting Accuracy Metrics | 第37-38页 |
| 3.4 MAPE as Accuracy Measure | 第38-42页 |
| 3.4.1 Features of the Model | 第39-41页 |
| 3.4.2 Limits of the Model | 第41-42页 |
| 4. Integrated forecasting Process(as continuative process among supply Chain levels and players) | 第42-55页 |
| 4.1 Forecasting Process:a Supply Chain Partner | 第42-44页 |
| 4.2 Importance of Flexibility | 第44-45页 |
| 4.3 Process Design and Development through the Supply Chain | 第45-46页 |
| 4.3.1 Management of the Information Flow | 第45-46页 |
| 4.4 Forecasting Mistakes through the Supply Chain | 第46-50页 |
| 4.4.1 The "Bull-Whip Effect" | 第46-49页 |
| 4.4.2 The "Backlash Effect" | 第49-50页 |
| 4.5 How to Help the Company to Cope with Limits | 第50-55页 |
| 4.5.1 Technical support to Supply Chain Integration of Forecasting | 第50-51页 |
| 4.5.2 Applications Integration | 第51-52页 |
| 4.5.3 Impact on Forecasting Performance | 第52-55页 |
| 5. Literature Review Summary | 第55-57页 |
| 5.1 Research Questions from Literature Review | 第55-56页 |
| 5.2 From Research Questions to an Empirical Study | 第56-57页 |
| B. Case Study | 第57-109页 |
| 6. Introduction to the Case Study as Methodology of Investigation | 第57-60页 |
| 6.1 Conditions behind this Methodology | 第57-59页 |
| 6.2 How to Design a Case Study | 第59-60页 |
| 7. Case Study Introduction | 第60-68页 |
| 7.1 Flows of the Analysis Steps and Hypotheses Statement | 第60-62页 |
| 7.2 Contest Overview | 第62-68页 |
| 7.2.1 The Company's Contest | 第62-63页 |
| 7.2.2 The Company's Business Model | 第63-64页 |
| 7.2.3 REV'IT as the "Bull-Whip Effect" Witness | 第64-65页 |
| 7.2.4 The Production/Distribution's Process | 第65-66页 |
| 7.2.5 The REV'IT!'s Fiscal Year | 第66-68页 |
| 8. Case Study Development | 第68-86页 |
| 8.1 Hypotheses Development | 第68-75页 |
| 8.1.1 Constraints and Assumptions behind the Choice of Data | 第68-69页 |
| 8.1.2 Orders Process Issues behind the Analysis | 第69-73页 |
| 8.1.3 Hypotheses Building | 第73页 |
| 8.1.4 Literature Gaps | 第73-75页 |
| 8.2 Hypotheses Background | 第75-84页 |
| 8.2.1 Low Accuracy Environment | 第75页 |
| 8.2.2 Sales and Budget Overview | 第75-79页 |
| 8.2.3 Low Accuracy Presentation,MAPE | 第79-81页 |
| 8.2.4 Profit Loss Calculations | 第81-84页 |
| 8.3 Further Steps towards Hypotheses Verification | 第84-86页 |
| 9. Analysis Execution | 第86-94页 |
| 9.1 Methodology Introduction | 第86-90页 |
| 9.1.1 Technical Assumptions | 第86-87页 |
| 9.1.2 Methodology Presentation | 第87-88页 |
| 9.1.3 Data Explanation | 第88-89页 |
| 9.1.4 ANOVA Analysis | 第89-90页 |
| 9.2 Results Presentation | 第90-92页 |
| 9.2.1 R~2 and Test Validity | 第90-92页 |
| 9.3 Results Discussion and Generalization | 第92-94页 |
| 10. Managerial Implications | 第94-102页 |
| 10.1 From the Analysis Results to a Possible Solution | 第94-96页 |
| 10.2 New Integration Elements | 第96-102页 |
| 10.2.1 Fiscal Year Strict Schedule Issues | 第96-97页 |
| 10.2.2 Difficulties to Forecast New Dealers Trends and Needs | 第97-98页 |
| 10.2.3 Obsolete Items | 第98页 |
| 10.2.4 Mismatch between Ordered Quantity and Shipped One | 第98-100页 |
| 10.2.5 Wrong Focus of SALES FORCE | 第100-102页 |
| 11. Critics to the Analysis Methodology | 第102-104页 |
| 12. Conclusions | 第104-109页 |
| C. Appendix | 第109-114页 |
| D. References | 第114-119页 |
| Acknowledgements | 第119页 |
