| 摘要 | 第4-6页 |
| Abstract | 第6-7页 |
| Chapter 1 Introduction and Background | 第12-40页 |
| 1.1 Introduction | 第12-20页 |
| 1.1.1 Development of Renewable Energy | 第14-16页 |
| 1.1.2 Traitional Power Systems | 第16-18页 |
| 1.1.3 Wind Power Integration to Power Systems | 第18页 |
| 1.1.4 Modeling of Wind Power | 第18-19页 |
| 1.1.5 Wind Power in China | 第19-20页 |
| 1.2 Review on Power System Security | 第20-23页 |
| 1.3 Research Situation of Wind Power Prediction | 第23-33页 |
| 1.3.1 Importance of Wind Power Prediction | 第23-25页 |
| 1.3.2 Models for Wind Power Prediction | 第25-26页 |
| 1.3.3 Combined Prediction Techniques | 第26-27页 |
| 1.3.4 Principle of Multiple Linear Regressions Models | 第27-28页 |
| 1.3.5 Time Series Models | 第28-33页 |
| 1.3.5.1 ARMA Model | 第29-30页 |
| 1.3.5.2 ARIMA Model | 第30页 |
| 1.3.5.3 ANN Model | 第30-32页 |
| 1.3.5.4 SVM Model | 第32-33页 |
| 1.4 Classification of Wind Power Prediction Horizon | 第33-35页 |
| 1.4.1 Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction | 第33-34页 |
| 1.4.2 Short-Term Wind Power Prediction | 第34页 |
| 1.4.3 Medium-Term Wind Power Prediction | 第34-35页 |
| 1.4.4 Long-Term Wind Power Prediction | 第35页 |
| 1.5 Accuracy Evaluation Indexes of Wind Power Prediction | 第35-37页 |
| 1.6 Research Contents of this Dissertation | 第37-40页 |
| Chapter 2 Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction with Hybrid Models | 第40-55页 |
| 2.1 Introduction | 第40-41页 |
| 2.2 Fundament of WPP Using Hybrid Method | 第41-43页 |
| 2.3 Processing Framework of MLR & LS by Hybrid Models | 第43-45页 |
| 2.4 Time Series Models in Wind Power Prediction | 第45-49页 |
| 2.4.1 ARMA Model in Wind Power Prediction | 第46页 |
| 2.4.2 ARIMA Model in Wind Power Prediction | 第46-47页 |
| 2.4.3 ANN Model in Wind Power Prediction | 第47-48页 |
| 2.4.4 SVM Model in Wind Power Prediction | 第48-49页 |
| 2.5 Comparison Charts with Different Models | 第49-54页 |
| 2.5.1 Comparison Scheme about Direct and Indirect Predictions | 第49-51页 |
| 2.5.2 Comparison Scheme about Single-Point and Multi-Point Predictions | 第51-52页 |
| 2.5.3 Comparison Scheme about One-Step and Multi-Step Predictions | 第52-53页 |
| 2.5.4 Comparison Scheme about the Proposed Method & ARMA, SVM and ANN Model | 第53-54页 |
| 2.6 Summary | 第54-55页 |
| Chapter 3 Simulation Analyses of Ultra-Short-Term WPP with Different Methods | 第55-71页 |
| 3.1 Introduction | 第55页 |
| 3.2 Simulation and Result Comparisonof USTWPP | 第55-65页 |
| 3.2.1 Comparisons between Single-Point and Multi-Point Predictions | 第56页 |
| 3.2.2 Comparisons between Direct and Indirect Predictions | 第56-58页 |
| 3.2.3 Comparisons between One-Step and Multi -Step Predictions | 第58-60页 |
| 3.2.4 Comparisons between Correction and Non-Correction Strategies | 第60-61页 |
| 3.2.5 Comparisons between the Proposed Method and Other Models | 第61-64页 |
| 3.2.6 Comparison Results Summary of USTWPP | 第64-65页 |
| 3.3 Variability and Fluctuation of WPP with the Proposed Method | 第65-70页 |
| 3.3.1 Characteristics of Wind Power Generation | 第65-66页 |
| 3.3.2 Variability of Wind Power Prediction | 第66-67页 |
| 3.3.3 Fluctuations of Wind Power Prediction | 第67-70页 |
| 3.4 Summary | 第70-71页 |
| Chapter 4 Performance Assessment of WPP by Using Hybrid Models with Correction Strategy | 第71-87页 |
| 4.1 Introduction | 第71-72页 |
| 4.2 Framework of Static Security Risk Assessment | 第72-74页 |
| 4.3 Risk Value Assessment of WPP | 第74-80页 |
| ?4.3.1 Hybrid Approach with HWC Strategy | 第74-75页 |
| 4.3.2 Risk Assessment of WPP Method with Different Time Periods? | 第75-76页 |
| 4.3.3 Risk Assessment of WPP Error ? | 第76-78页 |
| 4.3.4 Comparison of Error Margin by HWC and HWo C Strategies | 第78-80页 |
| 4.4 Risk Distribution Assessment of WPP | 第80-85页 |
| 4.4.1 Trend Probability Method in Power System Operation | 第81-82页 |
| 4.4.2 Impact of the Prediction with Different Time Periods | 第82-83页 |
| 4.4.3 Impact of the Prediction with Different Time Window | 第83-85页 |
| 4.5 Summary | 第85-87页 |
| Chapter 5 Static Security Risk Assessment of Power System with Wind Power | 第87-104页 |
| 5.1 Introduction | 第87页 |
| 5.2 Principle and Framework of Risk Assessment | 第87-89页 |
| 5.2.1 Principle of Risk Assessment | 第87-89页 |
| 5.3 Wind Power Data and System Requirements | 第89-91页 |
| 5.3.1 Descriptions of the Wind Power Data | 第89-90页 |
| 5.3.2 System Requirements with Wind Power Connection | 第90-91页 |
| 5.4 Probability Static Security Assessment with Pattern Sampling | 第91-95页 |
| 5.4.1 Risk Calculation Flow of Power System | 第91-92页 |
| 5.4.2 Pattern Feature Vector with Layer Structure | 第92-94页 |
| 5.4.3 Probabilistic Load Flow Based on PFV with LS | 第94-95页 |
| 5.5 Welfare Constraints and System Indices | 第95-97页 |
| 5.5.1 Effect of Changing the Loss of Load Probability | 第96-97页 |
| 5.5.2 Application to the Modified IEEE14-Bus System | 第97页 |
| 5.6 Application to Static Security Analysis | 第97-103页 |
| 5.6.1 Steady State Voltage | 第98-99页 |
| 5.6.2 Static Security Constraints | 第99-101页 |
| 5.6.3 Analysis of the Results | 第101-103页 |
| 5.7 Summary | 第103-104页 |
| Conclusion | 第104-106页 |
| References | 第106-121页 |
| Papers Published in the Period of Ph. D. Education | 第121-124页 |
| Acknowledgements | 第124-125页 |
| Resume | 第125页 |
