| Acknowledgment | 第1-6页 |
| 英文摘要 | 第6-11页 |
| Chapter Ⅰ Introduction | 第11-22页 |
| 1．1 Australia: a new economic force | 第11-13页 |
| 1．1．1 Between English and American influences | 第12-13页 |
| 1．1．2 Basics of economy-great export in the rich countries | 第13页 |
| 1．2 Human resources | 第13-16页 |
| 1．2．1 Distribution | 第14-15页 |
| 1．2．2 Small population: advantage or disadvantage | 第15-16页 |
| 1．3 The Pacific Rim seaborne trade | 第16-17页 |
| 1．4 The impact of the Pacific Rim on the world maritime scene | 第17-19页 |
| 1．5 The importance of seaborne trade | 第19-20页 |
| 1．6 How to predict the seaborne trade | 第20-22页 |
| Chapter Ⅱ The present state of seaborne trade of Australia | 第22-45页 |
| 2．1 The country's policy | 第22-27页 |
| 2．1．1 The role of the federal government in regulation of the shipping industry | 第23-25页 |
| 2．1．1．1 The Australian Maritime Safety Authority | 第23-24页 |
| 2．1．1．2 The Australian shipping registration office | 第24页 |
| 2．1．1．3 Seafarers | 第24-25页 |
| 2．1．1．4 Port State Control in Australia | 第25页 |
| 2．1．2 The Government role in economy | 第25-27页 |
| 2．1．2．1 Economic reforms | 第25-26页 |
| 2．1．2．2 Foreign investments as support for export activities | 第26-27页 |
| 2．2 The history review of seaborne trade | 第27-33页 |
| 2．3 Export and import | 第33-36页 |
| 2．3．1 Who are the main Australian's export-import partners | 第34-36页 |
| 2．4 The five main Australian export commodities | 第36-42页 |
| 2．4．1 Coal | 第36-37页 |
| 2．4．2 Iron Ore | 第37-38页 |
| 2．4．3 Grain and wheat | 第38-39页 |
| 2．4．4 Aluminum, alumina and bauxite | 第39-40页 |
| 2．4．5 Fresh meat and dairy products | 第40-42页 |
| 2．5 The five main Australian import commodities | 第42-45页 |
| Chapter Ⅲ Australian seaborne trade forecast | 第45-85页 |
| 3．1 Necessity to forecast | 第45-46页 |
| 3．2 Forecasts typologies | 第46-48页 |
| 3．3 Forecasting for the Australian seaborne trade | 第48-80页 |
| 3．3．1 Introduction | 第48页 |
| 3．3．2 Forecasting for the Australian coal seaborne trade and export destinations | 第48-55页 |
| 3．3．2．1 Forecasting method | 第48-50页 |
| 3．3．2．2 Results correction | 第50-51页 |
| 3．3．2．3 Analysis | 第51-55页 |
| 3．3．3 Forecasting for the Australian iron ore seaborne trade and export destinations | 第55-60页 |
| 3．3．3．1 Preliminary data | 第55页 |
| 3．3．3．2 Results correction | 第55页 |
| 3．3．3．3 Analysis | 第55-60页 |
| 3．3．4 Forecasting for the Australian aluminum seaborne trade and export destinations | 第60-65页 |
| 3．3．4．1 Preliminary data | 第60页 |
| 3．3．4．2 Results correction | 第60-61页 |
| 3．3．4．3 Analysis | 第61-65页 |
| 3．3．5 Forecasting for the Australian seaborne meat trade and export destinations | 第65-70页 |
| 3．3．5．1 Preliminary data | 第65页 |
| 3．3．5．2 Results correction | 第65-66页 |
| 3．3．5．3 Analysis | 第66-70页 |
| 3．3．6 Forecasting for the Australian wheat and grain seaborne trade and export destinations | 第70-80页 |
| 3．3．6．1 Forecasting method | 第70-71页 |
| 3．3．6．2 Results correction | 第71-72页 |
| 3．3．6．3 Analysis | 第72-80页 |
| 3．4 Prediction for the Sino-Australian trade | 第80-85页 |
| 3．4．1 Introduction | 第80-81页 |
| 3．4．2 The main Sino-Australian export-import commodities | 第81-83页 |
| 3．4．2．1 Iron ore | 第81页 |
| 3．4．2．2 Wool | 第81-82页 |
| 3．4．2．3 LNG trade | 第82页 |
| 3．4．2．4 Wheat | 第82-83页 |
| 3．4．3 Four key areas for future bilateral Sino-Australian co-operation | 第83-85页 |
| Chapter Ⅳ The present state of the fleet of Australia | 第85-100页 |
| 4．1 How to sail under the Australian flag | 第85-88页 |
| 4．1．1 Background | 第85页 |
| 4．1．2 Getting registered | 第85页 |
| 4．1．3 What ship can be registered? | 第85-86页 |
| 4．1．4 What is necessary for registration | 第86页 |
| 4．1．5 Marking and measuring | 第86页 |
| 4．1．6 Benefits | 第86-87页 |
| 4．1．7 Flying the flag | 第87页 |
| 4．1．8 Masters, officers and seamen | 第87-88页 |
| 4．2 Ship type distribution | 第88-91页 |
| 4．2．1 Historical review | 第88页 |
| 4．2．2 Australian fleet 1998 by ship type | 第88-91页 |
| 4．3 Age distribution on 1999 | 第91-94页 |
| 4．4 Shipownership | 第94-97页 |
| 4．5 Summarized review of the Australian merchant fleet | 第97-100页 |
| Chapter Ⅴ The fleet planning until 2003 | 第100-124页 |
| 5．1 The mathematical model for the fleet planning | 第100-102页 |
| 5．1．1 Introduction | 第100页 |
| 5．1．2 Mathematical model for fleet planning | 第100-102页 |
| 5．2 The model for the bulk fleet | 第102-109页 |
| 5．2．1 Organization of the input data | 第102-107页 |
| 5．2．2 Analysis of the output results | 第107-109页 |
| 5．3 The model for the tanker fleet | 第109-115页 |
| 5．3．1 Organization of the input data | 第109-111页 |
| 5．3．2 Analysis of the output results | 第111-115页 |
| 5．4 The model for the containership fleet | 第115-121页 |
| 5．4．1 Organization of the input data | 第115-117页 |
| 5．4．2 Analysis of the output results | 第117-121页 |
| 5．5 Prediction for the development other types of ship in the Australian fleet | 第121-124页 |
| Chapter Ⅵ Conclusion | 第124-28页 |
| 6．1 Emphasis and suggestions as well as findings | 第124-28页 |
| Graphs and Appendixes | 第28-127页 |
| Graph 2-1 Australian seaborne trade 1930s | 第28-29页 |
| Graph 2-2 Australian seaborne trade 1960s | 第29-30页 |
| Graph 2-3 Australian seaborne trade 1998 | 第30-52页 |
| Graph 3-1 Historical graph for the Australian seaborne coal trade | 第52-53页 |
| Graph 3-2 Forecasts for the Australian seaborne coal trade | 第53-54页 |
| Graph 3-3 Forecasts for the Australian seaborne coal trade export destinations | 第54-57页 |
| Graph 3-4 Historical graph for the Australian seaborne iron ore trade | 第57-58页 |
| Graph 3-5 Forecasts for the Australian seaborne iron ore trade | 第58-59页 |
| Graph 3-6 Forecasts for the Australian seaborne iron ore trade export destinations | 第59-62页 |
| Graph 3-7 Historical graph for the Australian seaborne aluminum trade | 第62-63页 |
| Graph 3-8 Forecasts for the Australian seaborne aluminum trade | 第63-64页 |
| Graph 3-9 Forecasts for the Australian seaborne aluminum trade export destinations | 第64-67页 |
| Graph 3-10 Historical graph for the Australian seaborne meat trade | 第67-68页 |
| Graph 3-11 Forecasts for the Australian seaborne meat trade | 第68-69页 |
| Graph 3-12 Forecasts for the Australian seaborne meat trade export destinations | 第69-74页 |
| Graph 3-13 Historical graph for the Australian seaborne wheat trade | 第74-75页 |
| Graph 3-14 Forecasts for the Australian seaborne wheat trade | 第75-76页 |
| Graph 3-15 Forecasts for the Australian seaborne wheat trade export destinations | 第76-77页 |
| Graph 3-16 Historical graph for the Australian seaborne grain trade | 第77-78页 |
| Graph 3-17 Forecasts for the Australian seaborne grain trade | 第78-79页 |
| Graph 3-18 Forecasts for the Australian seaborne grain trade export destinations | 第79-127页 |
| Appendix ”A” Bulk carrier fleet | 第127-131页 |
| Appendix ”B” Tanker fleet | 第131-134页 |
| Appendix ”C” Container fleet | 第134-136页 |
