| 摘要 | 第7-8页 |
| Abstract | 第8页 |
| CHAPTER 1:INTRODUCTION | 第13-21页 |
| 1.1 General Background and Motivation | 第13-14页 |
| 1.2 Literature reviews | 第14-21页 |
| 1.2.1 BP neural network method | 第14-17页 |
| 1.2.2 SVM Method | 第17-19页 |
| 1.2.3 Bayesian Method | 第19-21页 |
| CHAPTER 2 THE PRINCIPLE OF THE THREE ALGORITHMS SELECTED IN THEPAPER | 第21-41页 |
| 2.1 BP neural network algorithm | 第21-25页 |
| 2.1.1 The principle of BP neural network algorithm | 第21-23页 |
| 2.1.2 Parameter setting of BP neural network | 第23-24页 |
| 2.1.3 The deficiency of BP neural network | 第24-25页 |
| 2.2 SVM algorithm | 第25-32页 |
| 2.2.1 Support vector machines regression algorithm principle | 第25-26页 |
| 2.2.2 Size optimization of training sample set for support vector machines | 第26页 |
| 2.2.3 Training sample size optimization algorithm | 第26-28页 |
| 2.2.4 Setting and explanation of SVM model parameters | 第28页 |
| 2.2.5 The steps to establish the SVM model are | 第28-29页 |
| 2.2.6 Flow chart of SVM model establishment | 第29页 |
| 2.2.7 Kernel function method | 第29-32页 |
| 2.3 Bayes algorithm | 第32-41页 |
| 2.3.1 Bayesian theorem | 第32-33页 |
| 2.3.2 Bayesian reasoning | 第33-34页 |
| 2.3.3 Bayesian prediction model regularization and model selection(Regularization and modelselection) | 第34-41页 |
| CHAPTER 3:ANALYSIS OF PV OUTPUT AND METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS | 第41-49页 |
| 3.1 Description of the empirical platform | 第41-45页 |
| 3.2 Analysis of photovoltaic output characteristics | 第45-46页 |
| 3.3 Correlation Analysis of PV Output and Meteorological Factors | 第46-48页 |
| 3.4 Summary of this chapter | 第48-49页 |
| CHAPTER 4: EXPERIMENTAL COMPARISON OF PREDICTION METHODS | 第49-61页 |
| 4.1 The three methods of forecasting flow chart and forecasting process steps | 第49-51页 |
| 4.1.1 Three methods of prediction flow chart | 第49-51页 |
| 4.1.2 Predict modeling steps | 第51页 |
| 4.2 Experimental Design and Performance Comparison | 第51-60页 |
| 4.2.1 experimental program | 第51-52页 |
| 4.2.2 Training time evaluation | 第52-55页 |
| 4.2.3 prediction accuracy evaluation | 第55-58页 |
| 4.2.4 Overall performance evaluation | 第58-59页 |
| 4.2.5 Output power test | 第59-60页 |
| 4.3 Summary | 第60-61页 |
| CHAPTER 5: CONLUSION AND PERSPECTIVES | 第61-63页 |
| 5.1 Conclusion | 第61-62页 |
| 5.2 Future work perspectives | 第62-63页 |
| REFERENCES | 第63-67页 |
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENT | 第67-68页 |
| DEDICATION | 第68页 |
