| 中文摘要 | 第1-7页 |
| ABSTRACT | 第7-10页 |
| Table of Contents | 第10-15页 |
| List of Tables | 第15-17页 |
| List of Figures | 第17-20页 |
| INTRODUCTION | 第20-29页 |
| a Export & Agricultural SECTORS AS MAJOR Contributors to Egypt’s Economy | 第20-21页 |
| b China as Trade Partner of Egypt | 第21-22页 |
| c Problem Statement | 第22-24页 |
| d Justification & Contribution | 第24-25页 |
| e Research objectives | 第25页 |
| f Research questions | 第25-26页 |
| g Methodology | 第26-27页 |
| h Time, geographic and coverage of the research | 第27页 |
| i Research limitations | 第27页 |
| j Research Design | 第27-29页 |
| CHAPTER 1 RECENT TRENDS IN EGYPTIAN ECONOMY WITH FOCUS ON EXTERNAL TRADE SECTOR | 第29-58页 |
| 1-1 Introduction | 第29页 |
| 1-2 Structural economic reform programs in Brief | 第29-30页 |
| 1-3 The Current Economic Cycle | 第30-38页 |
| 1-3.1 GROWTH Domestic Product: | 第30-34页 |
| 1-3.2 Labor Force and Unemployment | 第34-35页 |
| 1-3.3 Inflation | 第35-36页 |
| 1-3.4 Monetary policy | 第36-37页 |
| 1-3.5 Fiscal policy | 第37-38页 |
| 1-4 Egyptian Foreign Trade Sector | 第38-47页 |
| 1-4.1 Development in Trade Performance | 第39-41页 |
| 1-4.2 Structures of Export Proceeds and Import Payments | 第41-47页 |
| 1-4.2.1 Merchandise Export Proceeds by Degree of Processing | 第41页 |
| 1-4.2.2 Merchandise Import Payments by Degree of Use | 第41-42页 |
| 1-4.2.3 Geographical Distribution of External Trade | 第42-47页 |
| 1-5 Overview EGYPT’S REGIONAL Trade Agreements | 第47-56页 |
| 1-5.1 Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa | 第47-48页 |
| 1-5.2 The Greater Arab Free Trade Area | 第48-50页 |
| 1-5.3 The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership Agreement | 第50-52页 |
| 1-5.4 Qualified Industrial Zones | 第52-53页 |
| 1-5.5 The Aghadir Agreement | 第53-54页 |
| 1-5.6 Egypt-USA Trade and Investment Framework Agreement | 第54-55页 |
| 1-5.7 Egypt –Turkey Free trade Agreement | 第55页 |
| 1-5.8 Bilateral Trade Agreements with Arab Countries | 第55-56页 |
| 1-6 Conclusion | 第56-58页 |
| CHAPTER 2 OVERVIEW EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR | 第58-75页 |
| 2-1 Introduction | 第58页 |
| 2-2 Contribution of Agriculture to Egypt’s Economy | 第58-59页 |
| 2-3 Agricultural Economic Policy Reform Programs | 第59-65页 |
| 2-3.1 Policy Reform Programs until mid-19905 | 第59-60页 |
| 2-3.2 Strategy for agriculture development Up to 2017 | 第60-61页 |
| 2-3.3 Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy towards 2030 | 第61-65页 |
| 2-3.3.1 Lessons Learned from Previous Agricultural Development Strategies | 第62-63页 |
| 2-3.3.2 Strategic objectives of SADs: | 第63-64页 |
| 2-3.3.3 Proposed implementation mechanisms for achieving the strategic objectives | 第64-65页 |
| 2-4 The main Characteristics of Egyptian Agricultural Sector | 第65-68页 |
| 2-4.1 Limitedness of Arable Lands | 第65-66页 |
| 2-4.2 Dependency on Irrigation | 第66-67页 |
| 2-4.3 Intensive Cropping Pattern | 第67页 |
| 2-4.4 Small Size of Landholdings | 第67-68页 |
| 2-4.5 Intensive Use of Fertilizers | 第68页 |
| 2-5 Current Situation of Food Production and Self-Sufficiency of Major Crops | 第68-73页 |
| 2-5.1 development in Cropping Pattern | 第68-70页 |
| 2-5.1.1 Cereals | 第68-70页 |
| 2-5.1.2 Food Legumes | 第70页 |
| 2-5.1.3 Fiber Crops | 第70页 |
| 2-5.1.4 Sugar Crops | 第70页 |
| 2-5.1.5 Oil Crops | 第70页 |
| 2-5.1.6 Fodder Crops | 第70页 |
| 2-5.1.7 Fruits crops | 第70页 |
| 2-5.1.8 Vegetables | 第70页 |
| 2-5.2 Current Situation of Food Production and Food Self-Sufficiency | 第70-73页 |
| 2-5.2.1 Cereal crops | 第71-72页 |
| 2-5.2.2 Sugar Crops | 第72页 |
| 2-5.2.3 Oil crops | 第72页 |
| 2-5.2.4 Horticultural Crops | 第72-73页 |
| 2-6 Conclusion | 第73-75页 |
| CHAPTER 3 A SURVEY OF THEORIES ON DETERMINANTS OF TRADE & LITERATURE REVIEW ON EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS | 第75-94页 |
| 3-1 Introduction | 第75页 |
| 3-2 A Survey of Theories on Determinants of Trade | 第75-88页 |
| 3-2.1 Historic Development of Theories of Trade | 第75-78页 |
| 3-2.1.1 Providentialists | 第76页 |
| 3-2.1.2. MERCANTILISM | 第76页 |
| 3-2.1.3 Physiocrats | 第76-77页 |
| 3-2.1.4 Classicists and Neo-Classicists | 第77页 |
| 3-2.1.5 Absolute Advantage | 第77页 |
| 3-2.1.6 Theory of Comparative Advantage | 第77-78页 |
| 3-2.1.7 Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) Theory | 第78页 |
| 3-2.2 Toward New Explanations of Trade | 第78-88页 |
| 3-2.2.1 Demand-Side Explanations | 第79-80页 |
| 3-2.2.2 Externalities | 第80页 |
| 3-2.2.3 Increasing Returns to Scale | 第80-81页 |
| 3-2.2.4 Imperfect Markets | 第81-82页 |
| 3-2.2.5 Technology | 第82-85页 |
| 3-2.2.6 Geography | 第85页 |
| 3-2.2.7 Investment | 第85-86页 |
| 3-2.2.8 Infant Industry and Factor Creation | 第86-87页 |
| 3-2.2.9 Strategic Trade Theory | 第87-88页 |
| 3-3 Literature Review on Egyptian Agricultural Exports | 第88-92页 |
| 3-4 Conclusion | 第92-94页 |
| CHAPTER 4 ANALYSIS OF THE PERFORMANCE & COMPETITIVENESS OF EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS | 第94-119页 |
| 4-1 Introduction | 第94页 |
| 4-2 Evaluation of Trends in Egyptian Agricultural Exports | 第94-100页 |
| 4-2.1 Overall Balance on Agriculture Trade | 第94-95页 |
| 4-2.2 Relative Importance of Egypt’s Agriculture Trade to Total Trade Indicators | 第95页 |
| 4-2.3 Structure of Egyptian Agricultural Exports by Major Commodity Groups | 第95-98页 |
| 4-2.4 Breakdown of Egypt’s Major Agricultural Exports | 第98-99页 |
| 4-2.5 Geographic Distribution of Egyptian Agricultural Exports | 第99-100页 |
| 4-3 Some Empirical Indicators of the Performance of Egypt’s Agricultural Exports | 第100-104页 |
| 4-3.1 Agricultural Trade Openness Index | 第100-101页 |
| 4-3.2 Growth of Egypt’s Agricultural Exports | 第101页 |
| 4-3.3 Export/Import Coverage | 第101-102页 |
| 4-3.4 Import Penetration Index | 第102-103页 |
| 4-3.5 Agricultural Export Propensity Index | 第103-104页 |
| 4-4 Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) | 第104-117页 |
| 4-4.1 Balassa’s Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage | 第104-105页 |
| 4-4.2 Revealed Comparative Advantage in Egypt’s Major Agricultural Products | 第105-111页 |
| 4-4.3 Vollrath’s Indexes of Revealed Competitive Advantage | 第111页 |
| 4-4.4 Vollrath’s Indexes of Revealed Competitiveness | 第111-117页 |
| 4-5 Conclusion | 第117-119页 |
| CHAPTER 5 DETERMINANTS OF EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS:A GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH | 第119-133页 |
| 5-1 Introduction | 第119-120页 |
| 5-2 Theoretical Foundations of the Gravity Model | 第120-121页 |
| 5-3 Theoretical Justification | 第121-122页 |
| 5-4 Empirical Literature of the Gravity Equation | 第122-126页 |
| 5-5 Methodology & Specification of the Model | 第126-127页 |
| 5-6 Data & Sample Size | 第127-128页 |
| 5-7 Estimation Procedures | 第128-129页 |
| 5-8 Econometric Issues | 第129-130页 |
| 5-8.1 Multicollinearity | 第129页 |
| 5-8.2 Univariate Characteristics of Variables | 第129-130页 |
| 5-9 Discussion of Empirical Results | 第130-132页 |
| 5-10 Conclusion | 第132-133页 |
| CHAPTER 6 EXPERIENCE OF SOME EGYPTIAN COMPANIES EXPORTING AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES | 第133-152页 |
| 6-1 Introduction | 第133页 |
| 6-2 Literature Review | 第133-134页 |
| 6-3 Qualitative Research Method Used In The Study | 第134-135页 |
| 6-4 Selection of Companies and Ethical Considerations | 第135-136页 |
| 6-5 Discussion of Findings from the Interviews | 第136-150页 |
| 6-5.1 Companies’Experience in Exporting Agricultural Products | 第136页 |
| 6-5.2 The Volume of Employment in The Interviewed Companies | 第136-137页 |
| 6-5.3 Specialization of Companies in Agricultural Commodities | 第137-139页 |
| 6-5.4 Criteria Adopted by the Interviewed Companies for Selecting the Importing Markets | 第139-140页 |
| 6-5.5 Sources of Information about the Export Opportunities in the Foreign Markets | 第140-141页 |
| 6-5.6 Problems Encountered in the Agricultural Export Activity | 第141-149页 |
| 6-5.6.1 Internal Problems | 第141-145页 |
| 6-5.6.2 External Problems | 第145-149页 |
| 6-5.7 Support from the Egyptian Government to Agricultural Exporters | 第149页 |
| 6-5.8 Suggestions of the Interviewed Companies to Improve the Access of Egyptian Ag Exports in Importing Markets | 第149-150页 |
| 6-6 Conclusion | 第150-152页 |
| CHAPTER 7 EGYPTIAN-CHINESE BILATERAL TRADE: DYNAMICS & PERSPECTIVES | 第152-170页 |
| 7-1 Introduction | 第152-153页 |
| 7-2 Retrospective of China’s Economy Development | 第153-157页 |
| 7-2.1 China’s Economy Prior to Reforms | 第154页 |
| 7-2.2 China’s Economic Growth since Reforms: 1979-2008 | 第154-157页 |
| 7-3 Cooperation between Egypt and China in Brief | 第157-158页 |
| 7-4 Trends in Bilateral Trade between Egypt and China | 第158-168页 |
| 7-4.1 Development in Overall Bilateral Trade | 第158-161页 |
| 7-4.2 Composition of Trade between Egypt and China | 第161-162页 |
| 7-4.3 Trade Intensity Index | 第162-163页 |
| 7-4.4 Intra-Industry Trade Index | 第163-164页 |
| 7-4.5 Analysis of Trade Complementarity | 第164-168页 |
| 7-4.5.1 Revealed Comparative Advantage | 第164-166页 |
| 7-4.5.2 Complementarity in Trade | 第166-168页 |
| 7-5 Conclusion | 第168-170页 |
| CHAPTER 8 POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN THE CHINESE MARKET | 第170-198页 |
| 8-1 Introduction | 第170页 |
| 8-2 China’s Agricultural Development in the Past Three Decades | 第170-175页 |
| 8-2.1 Agricultural Policy Reform in China | 第170-172页 |
| 8-2.2 Agricultural Production Growth | 第172-173页 |
| 8-2.3 Structural Changes in Agricultural Production | 第173-174页 |
| 8-2.4 Food Security | 第174-175页 |
| 8-3 Evaluation of Trends in Egypt-China Agricultural Trade Balance | 第175-180页 |
| 8-4 Potential Opportunities for Egyptian Agricultural Exports into Chinese Market | 第180-186页 |
| 8-4.1 Analysis of Comparative Advantage | 第180-185页 |
| 8-4.2 Egypt’s Agricultural Export Potentials to China Using the Gravity Model | 第185-186页 |
| 8-5 Qualitative Analysis of Egyptian Exporting Companies in China | 第186-195页 |
| 8-5.1 Selection of The Exporters’Sample | 第187-188页 |
| 8-5.2 Assessment of the Focus Groups | 第188-195页 |
| 8-5.2.1 First Entry into Chinese Market | 第188-189页 |
| 8-5.2.2 Challenges of Operating Export Business in/to China | 第189-194页 |
| 8-5.2.3 Agricultural Export Opportunities Provided by the Chinese Market | 第194页 |
| 8-5.2.4 Recommendations for Improving theEgyptian Agricultural Exports to China | 第194-195页 |
| 8-6 Conclusion | 第195-198页 |
| CHAPTER 9 A ROADMAP TOWARDS THE PROMOTION OF EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS | 第198-219页 |
| 9-1 Introduction | 第198页 |
| 9-2 Contextualizing The Findings | 第198-204页 |
| 9-2.1 Assessing Strengths For Egyptian Agricultural Exports | 第198-199页 |
| 9-2.2 Weakness Sources Of Egyptian Agricultural Exports | 第199-200页 |
| 9-2.3 Opportunities For Promotion Of Egypt’s Agricultural Exports | 第200-202页 |
| 9-2.4 Threats Influencing The Promotion of Egyptian Agricultural Exports | 第202-204页 |
| 9-3 A Roadmap towards the Promotion Of Egyptian Agricultural Exports | 第204-217页 |
| 9-3.1 The Vision | 第205页 |
| 9-3.2 Strategic Objectives | 第205页 |
| 9-3.3 Principles of the Strategy Implementation | 第205-206页 |
| 9-3.4 Recommended Strategic Interventions | 第206-217页 |
| 9-4 Conclusion | 第217-219页 |
| SUMMARY, CONCLUDING REMARKS & FUTURE RESEARCH | 第219-231页 |
| Introduction | 第219页 |
| Overall Summary Concluding Remarks | 第219-229页 |
| Recommendations For Further Study | 第229-231页 |
| REFERENCES | 第231-246页 |
| APPENDIX | 第246-266页 |
| ABBREVIATIONS | 第266-268页 |
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS | 第268-270页 |
| VITA | 第270页 |
