| ACKNOWLEDGEMENT | 第10-12页 |
| ABSTRACT | 第12-13页 |
| 摘要 | 第14-26页 |
| Chapter 1: Introduction | 第26-61页 |
| 1.1 General introduction | 第26-28页 |
| 1.2 Basic theories of news shocks and business cycle | 第28-34页 |
| 1.2.1 Theories analyze news shocks and business cycle | 第28-30页 |
| 1.2.2 Role of news shocks in business cycle | 第30-31页 |
| 1.2.3 Approaches used to measure news shocks in the literature | 第31-34页 |
| 1.3 Basic theories of monetary policy and business cycle | 第34-45页 |
| 1.3.1 Theories analyze monetary policy and business cycle | 第34-37页 |
| 1.3.2 Role of monetary policy in business cycle and global imbalances | 第37-40页 |
| 1.3.3 Approaches used to measure monetary policy transmission mechanisms in theliterature | 第40-45页 |
| 1.4 Basic theories of contagion | 第45-53页 |
| 1.4.1 Theories analyze contagion | 第46-48页 |
| 1.4.2 Approaches used to test contagion in the literature | 第48-53页 |
| 1.5 Objectives and plan of this dissertation | 第53-57页 |
| 1.6 Innovation of this dissertation | 第57-58页 |
| 1.7 Flowchart of this dissertation | 第58-61页 |
| Chapter 2: New Evidence on the Identification of News Shocks on Business Cycle | 第61-91页 |
| 2.1 Description of problems | 第61-65页 |
| 2.2 Empirical model | 第65-68页 |
| 2.3 Data | 第68-69页 |
| 2.4 Results and discussion | 第69-85页 |
| 2.4.1 How might our conclusion regarding the impact of news shock on businesscycle fluctuations change by using different vintages of TFP series? | 第69-81页 |
| 2.4.2 Which forward-looking variables account for major share of forecast errorvariance of TFP and output due to news shock? | 第81-85页 |
| 2.5 Robustness | 第85-89页 |
| 2.6 Conclusion | 第89-91页 |
| Chapter 3: Assessing the Effect of Monetary Policy on Business Cycle | 第91-104页 |
| 3.1 Description of problems | 第91-95页 |
| 3.2 Empirical model | 第95-96页 |
| 3.3 Data and description | 第96-97页 |
| 3.4 Results and discussion | 第97-102页 |
| 3.5 Conclusion | 第102-104页 |
| Chapter 4: Monetary Policy and Contagion of the Business Cycle | 第104-135页 |
| 4.1 Description of problems | 第104-107页 |
| 4.2 Empirical model | 第107-110页 |
| 4.3 Data and descriptive statistics | 第110-114页 |
| 4.3.1 Data | 第110-111页 |
| 4.3.2 Descriptive statistics | 第111-114页 |
| 4.4 Results and discussion | 第114-128页 |
| 4.4.1 Emerging money market | 第114-118页 |
| 4.4.2 Stock market | 第118-125页 |
| 4.4.3 Emerging sovereign bond market | 第125-126页 |
| 4.4.4 Implications | 第126-128页 |
| 4.5 Conclusion | 第128-130页 |
| 4.6 Annexure | 第130-135页 |
| Chapter 5: Conclusion and Recommendations | 第135-139页 |
| 5.1 Conclusion | 第135-137页 |
| 5.2 Policy implications and recommendations | 第137页 |
| 5.3 Future research possibilities | 第137-139页 |
| References | 第139-162页 |
| Glossary | 第162-164页 |
| List of Publications | 第164-165页 |
| Work in Progress | 第165页 |
