| ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS | 第5-6页 |
| ABSTRACT | 第6-7页 |
| 摘要 | 第8-12页 |
| LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS | 第12-15页 |
| CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION | 第15-24页 |
| 1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY | 第15-21页 |
| 1.2. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM | 第21-22页 |
| 1.3. OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY | 第22页 |
| 1.3.1. GENERAL OBJECTIVE | 第22页 |
| 1.3.2. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES | 第22页 |
| 1.4. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY | 第22页 |
| 1.5. STUDY HYPOTHESIS | 第22-23页 |
| 1.6. ORGANIZATION OF THESIS WORK | 第23-24页 |
| CHAPTER TWO: THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL LITERATURE | 第24-37页 |
| 2.1. OVERVIEW OF LITERATURE REVIEW | 第24-25页 |
| 2.2. THE THEORETICAL EVIDENCE | 第25-32页 |
| 2.2.1. THEORIES TO ASSESSING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEENEXCHANGE RATE CHANGES AND TRADE BALANCE | 第25-32页 |
| 2.3. THE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE | 第32-37页 |
| 2.3.1. SUMMARY OF RESEARCH FINDINGS WITH POSITIVERESULTS | 第32-34页 |
| 2.3.2. SUMMARY OF RESEARCH FINDINGS WITH NEGATIVERESULTS | 第34-35页 |
| 2.3.3. SUMMARY OF RESEARCH FINDINGS WITH NO EFFECT | 第35-37页 |
| CHAPTER THREE: AN OVERVIEW OF MALAWI’S TRADE AND MONETARYPOLICIES AND THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE REGIMES | 第37-48页 |
| 3.1. MALAWI’S TRADE POLICY | 第37-42页 |
| 3.1.1. BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS | 第40页 |
| 3.1.2. THE AFRICAN FREE TRADE ZONE | 第40页 |
| 3.1.3. THE COTONOU AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN UNION (EU) AND AFRICAN CARIBBEAN PACIFIC (ACP) COUNTRIES | 第40-41页 |
| 3.1.4. THE UNITED STATES-AFRICAN GROWTH OPPORTUNITY ACT (US-AGOA) INITIATIVE FOR CONCESSIONAL EXPORTS TO THE USMARKET | 第41-42页 |
| 3.2. MONETARY POLICY | 第42-44页 |
| 3.3. FOREIGN EXCHANGE REGIMES | 第44-48页 |
| CHAPTER FOUR: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY | 第48-53页 |
| 4.1. OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH METHODOLOGY | 第48-49页 |
| 4.2. OVERVIEW OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS | 第49-50页 |
| 4.3. MEASURING EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY | 第50-51页 |
| 4.4. ATERNATIVE MEASURE OF VOLATILITY | 第51-53页 |
| 4.4.1 THE MOVING AVERAGE STANDARD DEVIATION (MASD) MODEL | 第51-52页 |
| 4.4.2 THE ARCH/GARCH MODEL | 第52-53页 |
| CHAPTER FIVE: SIMULATION ANALYSIS AND RESULTS | 第53-63页 |
| 5.1. THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON TRADEBALANCE: MAIN RESULTS | 第53-63页 |
| 5.1.1. TECHNIQUES AND METHODS | 第53页 |
| 5.1.2. TEST OF MODEL ADEQUACY | 第53-63页 |
| CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS | 第63-65页 |
| 6.1. CONCLUSION | 第63-64页 |
| 6.2. RECOMMENDATIONS | 第64-65页 |
| REFERENCES | 第65-73页 |
