| 摘要 | 第5-6页 |
| Abstract | 第6-7页 |
| Ⅰ. Introduction | 第13-18页 |
| 1.1. Research Actuality | 第13-14页 |
| 1.2. Literature Review | 第14-16页 |
| 1.3. Key Research Questions | 第16页 |
| 1.4. Methodology | 第16-18页 |
| Ⅱ. Global trends in the production of nitrogen fertilizers,China's role in the manufacture and export of nitrogen fertilizers | 第18-33页 |
| 2.1. Global trends in the production of nitrogen fertilizers | 第18-26页 |
| 2.2. China's role in the manufacture and export of nitrogen fertilizers | 第26-33页 |
| Ⅲ. The concept of the production of nitrogen fertilizers and production structure,the method of calculation of production costs,the reasons for changes in production costs | 第33-46页 |
| 3.1. The concept of the production of nitrogen fertilizers and production structure | 第33-40页 |
| 3.2. The method of calculation of production costs, reasons for changes in production costs | 第40-46页 |
| Ⅳ. The economic model of China's nitrogen fertilizer production cost and its influence on export | 第46-54页 |
| 4.1. Experimental design | 第46-47页 |
| 4.2. Estimating the agronomically, economically, and ecologically optimal N rates | 第47-50页 |
| 4.3. Comparison of agronomically, economically, and ecologically optimal N rates | 第50-52页 |
| 4.4. Variation in the ecologically optimal N rate | 第52-54页 |
| Ⅴ. Calculations of efficiency of the economic model of China's nitrogen fertilizer production cost and its influence on export | 第54-60页 |
| Ⅵ. ARIMA model for the forecastin | 第60-62页 |
| Ⅶ. Conclusions and implications | 第62-104页 |
| References | 第104-106页 |
| Appendix | 第106-117页 |
| Figure 1. Global nutrients (N+P2O5+K2O) consumption | 第106页 |
| Figure 2. Regional and subregional share of world increase/de(?)rease in nitrogen fertilizer consumption, 2014-2018 | 第106-107页 |
| Figure 3. Regional and subregional share of world increase in phosphate fertilizer consumption, 2014-2018 | 第107页 |
| Figure 4. Regional and subregional share of world increase in potash fertilizer consumption, 2014-2018 | 第107-108页 |
| Figure 5. Regional and subregional share of world increase in ammonia(AS N) supply, 2014 -2018 | 第108页 |
| Figure 6. Regional and subregionai share of world increase/decrease phosphoric acid (AS P205)supply, 2014-2018 | 第108-109页 |
| Figure 7. Regional and subregional share of world increase/decrease in potash(AS K20) supply, 2014-2018 | 第109页 |
| Figure 8. Growth in nitrogen fertilizes consumption and cereal and vegetable output, 1961 -2008(1961＝100) | 第109-110页 |
| Figure 9. Fertilizers are composed | 第110页 |
| Figure 10. Phosphorous fertilizer component | 第110-111页 |
| Figure 11. Estimated cost to fertilize each plant in the fertility experiment at Cornell | 第111-112页 |
| Figure 12. Relationships between the N rate and N-derived yield (A),economic benefit (B),and Net benefit (C) over 91 sites in 12 counties in Henan Province for maize production in China from 2008 to 2009 | 第112页 |
| Figure 13. N-derived yield benefit, economic benefit, net benefit, N fertilizer cost, and environmental cost associated with different N rates over 91 sites in 12 counties in Henan province for maize production in China from 2008 to 2009 | 第112-113页 |
| Figure 14.Average ecologically optimal N rate(NECL)(A),Grain yield(B),Control yield(C),and N-derived yield(D)when the data were examined by soil type, year, and county, respectively. | 第113页 |
| Figure 15. Relationships between the ecologically optimal N rate(Necl)and grain yield(A),control yield(B),and N-derived yield(C) over 91 sites in 12 counties in Henan Province for maize production in China from 2008 to 2009 | 第113-114页 |
| Figure 16. The forecasted price of nitrogen fertilizer exported by China The procedure code for ARIMA used in this dissertation in STATA | 第114-117页 |
| Acknowledgements | 第117-118页 |
| Curriculum Vitae | 第118页 |
