| Acknowledgements | 第5-6页 |
| 摘要 | 第6-9页 |
| Abstract | 第9-13页 |
| List of Abbreviations | 第21-22页 |
| 1 Introduction | 第22-34页 |
| 1.1 Contextual Study Background | 第22-24页 |
| 1.2 Tobacco Sector in Pakistan | 第24-26页 |
| 1.3 Scope of the study | 第26页 |
| 1.4 Objectives of the study | 第26-28页 |
| 1.5 Conceptual Framework | 第28-30页 |
| 1.6 Innovative contributions | 第30-31页 |
| 1.7 Outline of the thesis | 第31-34页 |
| 2 Concept definition, theoretical basis and literature review | 第34-56页 |
| 2.1 Theoretical framework | 第34-35页 |
| 2.2 Risk and Uncertainty in Agriculture Sector | 第35-37页 |
| 2.3 Major Sources of Risk in Agriculture | 第37-39页 |
| 2.3.1 Production or Yield risk | 第37页 |
| 2.3.2 Price or Market risk | 第37页 |
| 2.3.3 Institutional or Legal risk | 第37-38页 |
| 2.3.4 Human or personal risks | 第38页 |
| 2.3.5 Financial risk | 第38-39页 |
| 2.4 Strategies for Risk Management in Agriculture | 第39-43页 |
| 2.4.1 Enterprise Diversification | 第39-40页 |
| 2.4.2 Vertical Integration | 第40页 |
| 2.4.3 Production Contracts | 第40-41页 |
| 2.4.4 Marketing Contracts | 第41页 |
| 2.4.5 Hedging and Future Option Contracts | 第41页 |
| 2.4.6 Maintaining Financial Reserves and Leveraging | 第41-42页 |
| 2.4.7 Insuring Crop yields and Crop revenues | 第42页 |
| 2.4.8 Off Farm Diversification | 第42-43页 |
| 2.5 Problems faced by farmers in the adoption of risk management strategies | 第43-44页 |
| 2.6 Risk Sources and Adoption Decisions | 第44-48页 |
| 2.6.1 Production Responses to Risk | 第45-47页 |
| 2.6.2 Marketing Responses to Risk | 第47页 |
| 2.6.3 Financial Responses to Risk | 第47-48页 |
| 2.7 Perceived Benefits from Contact farming | 第48-49页 |
| 2.8 Farmers' Use of Alternative risk management strategies | 第49-50页 |
| 2.9 Determinants of Risk Management Decisions | 第50-52页 |
| 2.9.1 Socioeconomic Characteristic of Household | 第51页 |
| 2.9.2 Risk Perception and Risk Attitude | 第51-52页 |
| 2.10 Tobacco production in Pakistan | 第52-53页 |
| 2.10.1 Risk sources in Pakistan's agriculture sector | 第53页 |
| 2.11 Literature Gap | 第53-56页 |
| 3 Study Case and Methodology | 第56-72页 |
| 3.1 Study Area and Sampling Framework | 第56-61页 |
| 3.1.1 Selection of the provinces | 第56-58页 |
| 3.1.2 Selection of districts | 第58-59页 |
| 3.1.3 Selection of sample | 第59-60页 |
| 3.1.4 Justification for selecting tobacco crop | 第60-61页 |
| 3.1.5 Data collection | 第61页 |
| 3.2 Empirical specification | 第61-62页 |
| 3.3 Socio-economic and demographic factors | 第62页 |
| 3.4 Risk perception | 第62-64页 |
| 3.5 Risk attitude | 第64-66页 |
| 3.6 Contract farming perceived benefits | 第66-68页 |
| 3.7 Bivariate and multinomial probit model | 第68-72页 |
| 4 Tobacco Sector and Farmer's Characteristics in Pakistan | 第72-88页 |
| 4.1 Pakistan's Tobacco Sector | 第74-76页 |
| 4.1.1 Types of Tobacco Grown in Pakistan | 第74-75页 |
| 4.1.2 Tobacco contract farming in Pakistan | 第75页 |
| 4.1.3 Minimum Indicative Prices and Weighted Average Prices for Tobacco | 第75-76页 |
| 4.2 Household characteristics of the tobacco growers | 第76-82页 |
| 4.2.1 Age | 第77-78页 |
| 4.2.2 Education | 第78-79页 |
| 4.2.3 Farming Experience | 第79-80页 |
| 4.2.4 Income | 第80-81页 |
| 4.2.5 Family Size | 第81-82页 |
| 4.3 Farm Characteristics | 第82-84页 |
| 4.3.1 Farm Size | 第82-83页 |
| 4.3.2 Tobacco farm size | 第83-84页 |
| 4.3.3 Land ownership status | 第84页 |
| 4.4 Contract agreement by the tobacco growers | 第84-85页 |
| 4.5 Chapter Summary | 第85-88页 |
| 5 Risk perception, Attitude and Perceived Benefits of Contract Farming | 第88-114页 |
| 5.1 Risk Perceptions | 第88-96页 |
| 5.1.1 Risk of flood | 第89-90页 |
| 5.1.2 Risk of heavy rains/hailstorms | 第90-91页 |
| 5.1.3 Risk of heavy winds | 第91-93页 |
| 5.1.4 Risk of pest and diseases | 第93-94页 |
| 5.1.5 Risk of Fire (in curing furnaces) | 第94-95页 |
| 5.1.6 Risk of drought | 第95-96页 |
| 5.2 Risk Assessment and Treatment Priorities | 第96-97页 |
| 5.3 Risk Attitude of Tobacco Growers | 第97-99页 |
| 5.4 Effect of Farm and farm Household Characteristics on Risk Perception andRisk Attitude of Tobacco Growers | 第99-105页 |
| 5.4.1 Risk perception and risk attitude among different Age groups | 第99-100页 |
| 5.4.2 Risk perception and risk attitude by Education level | 第100-101页 |
| 5.4.3 Risk perception and risk attitude by family size | 第101页 |
| 5.4.4 Risk perception and risk attitude based on farming experience | 第101-102页 |
| 5.4.5 Risk perception and risk attitude based on farmer's income | 第102-104页 |
| 5.4.6 Risk perception and risk attitude based on land ownership Status | 第104页 |
| 5.4.7 Risk perception and risk attitude by farm size | 第104-105页 |
| 5.5 Risk perceptions and risk attitude based on the contract agreement | 第105-106页 |
| 5.6 Risk perceptions and risk attitude based on off-farm diversification | 第106-108页 |
| 5.7 Proportional Odds Cumulative Logit Model | 第108-110页 |
| 5.8 Perceived Benefits based on Risk Attitude: | 第110-111页 |
| 5.9 Chapter summary | 第111-114页 |
| 6 Adoption of Risk Management Tools | 第114-124页 |
| 6.1 Risk Management Tools | 第114-115页 |
| 6.2 Parameter Estimates of individual and Bivariate Probit Models | 第115-119页 |
| 6.2.1 Factors affecting the adoption of contract farming and Off-farmdiversification | 第116-119页 |
| 6.3 Parameter Estimates of Multinomial Probit Model | 第119-123页 |
| 6.3.1 Factors Affecting the Adoption of a Combination of Risk ManagementTools | 第120-121页 |
| 6.3.2 Effect of risk attitude and perception on the adoption of a combination ofrisk management tools | 第121-123页 |
| 6.4 Summary of the findings | 第123-124页 |
| 7 Conclusion and Recommendations | 第124-128页 |
| 7.1 Conclusion | 第124-125页 |
| 7.2 Recommendations/ Way forward for future studies | 第125-128页 |
| References | 第128-141页 |
| Appendix 1 | 第141-143页 |
| Appendix 2 | 第143-147页 |
| Appendix 3 | 第147-156页 |
| About the author | 第156-158页 |
| LIST OF PUBLICATIONS | 第158页 |
