| 摘要 | 第10-12页 |
| Abstract | 第12-14页 |
| 1 Introduction | 第15-30页 |
| 1.1 Background and significance of climatic change and drought Research | 第15-16页 |
| 1.1.1 Background and significance of climatic change research | 第15页 |
| 1.1.2 Background and significance of drought research | 第15-16页 |
| 1.2 Purpose and Significance of research | 第16-17页 |
| 1.3 Drought | 第17-19页 |
| 1.3.1 Drought types | 第17页 |
| 1.3.2 Drought mitigation | 第17页 |
| 1.3.3 Drought characteristics | 第17-19页 |
| 1.4 Climate change | 第19-21页 |
| 1.4.1 Climate | 第19页 |
| 1.4.2 Climate change impact on water resources and agriculture production | 第19-21页 |
| 1.5 Summarization of domestic and foreign research | 第21-26页 |
| 1.5.1 Climatic variables trends | 第21-23页 |
| 1.5.2 Agro-meteorological drought scenario | 第23-24页 |
| 1.5.3 Agro-meteorological drought indices | 第24-25页 |
| 1.5.4 Future drought projection | 第25-26页 |
| 1.6 Research objectives and innovative points | 第26-29页 |
| 1.6.1 Research objectives | 第26-27页 |
| 1.6.2 Innovative points of research | 第27-29页 |
| Framework of this Study | 第29-30页 |
| 2 Natural conditions and methodology | 第30-37页 |
| 2.1 Natural geographical conditions and River system | 第30-31页 |
| 2.2 Natural fanning conditions in the Songhua River basin | 第31-32页 |
| 2.2.1 Farmland changes in the River Basin | 第31-32页 |
| 2.3 Research Area and Datasets | 第32-33页 |
| 2.4 Mathematical approaches | 第33-37页 |
| 2.4.1 Entropy theories | 第33-34页 |
| 2.4.2 Various drought indices approach for drought prediction | 第34-35页 |
| 2.4.3 Statistical theories | 第35-37页 |
| 3 Precipitation variability assessment using entropy theories | 第37-51页 |
| 3.1 Methods | 第38-41页 |
| 3.1.1 Entropy as extent of temporal precipitation apportionment | 第38-40页 |
| 3.1.2 Sample Entropy | 第40页 |
| 3.1.3 Intensity Entropy | 第40页 |
| 3.1.4 Apportionment Entropy | 第40-41页 |
| 3.1.5 Decadal Apportionment Entropy | 第41页 |
| 3.2 Results and Discussion | 第41-50页 |
| 3.2.1 Variability of Precipitation (Annual, Seasonal & Monthly Basis) | 第41-45页 |
| 3.2.2 Precipitation Variability on Spatial and Temporal Scale | 第45-47页 |
| 3.2.3 Rainy Days Variability | 第47-48页 |
| 3.2.4 Decadal Variability | 第48-50页 |
| 3.3 Summary | 第50-51页 |
| 4 Assessment of historical climatic trends by using the precipitation and temperature dataseries in the Songhua River basin of China | 第51-65页 |
| 4.1 Methods | 第52-54页 |
| 4.1.1 Mann-Kendall trend test | 第52-53页 |
| 4.1.2 Spearman's Rho test | 第53-54页 |
| 4.1.3 Sen's Slope Estimator | 第54页 |
| 4.2 Result and Analysis | 第54-64页 |
| 4.2.1 Statistical analysis of annual precipitation and temperature | 第54-55页 |
| 4.2.2 Monthly analysis of precipitation and temperature | 第55-58页 |
| 4.2.3 Annual and seasonal analysis of temperature and precipitation | 第58-60页 |
| 4.2.4 Long term persistence of seasonal precipitation and temperature data series | 第60-62页 |
| 4.2.5 Long term pattern of annual precipitation and temperature data series | 第62-64页 |
| 4.3 Summary | 第64-65页 |
| 5 Detecting the persistence of historical spatiotemporal variations of agro meteorologicaldrying trends by using numerous drought indices | 第65-89页 |
| 5.1 Methods | 第66-70页 |
| 5.1.1 Drought Identifications | 第66-67页 |
| 5.1.2 Drought events statistics | 第67页 |
| 5.1.3 Standardized Precipitation Index | 第67-68页 |
| 5.1.4 Reconnaissance Drought Index | 第68页 |
| 5.1.5 Standardized Precipitation Evaporative index | 第68页 |
| 5.1.6 Effective Drought Index | 第68-70页 |
| 5.2 Result and Analysis | 第70-86页 |
| 5.2.1 Meteorological drought analysis | 第70-78页 |
| 5.2.2 Agro-meteorological drought analysis | 第78-86页 |
| 5.3 Summary | 第86-89页 |
| 6 Projected changes of future extreme drought events under various drought indices by usingCMIP3 approach | 第89-100页 |
| 6.1 Future Climate Scenarios | 第89页 |
| 6.2 Methodology | 第89-92页 |
| 6.3 Results and Analysis | 第92-98页 |
| 6.3.1 Projected changes in meteorological variables | 第92-93页 |
| 6.3.2 3 & 6 Month drought Scenario | 第93-94页 |
| 6.3.3 9 & 12 Month drought Scenario | 第94-95页 |
| 6.3.4 SPI, RDI and EDI indices drought comparison scenario | 第95-96页 |
| 6.3.5 Drought Frequency Analysis | 第96-98页 |
| 6.4 Summary | 第98-100页 |
| 7 Projected changes of future drought events under numerous drought indices by usingCMIP5 approach | 第100-116页 |
| 7.1 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5) - High emission | 第101页 |
| 7.2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) -Intermediate emission | 第101-102页 |
| 7.3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.5) - Low emission | 第102页 |
| 7.4 Methodology | 第102-105页 |
| 7.4.1 Generating future climatic data | 第102-104页 |
| 7.4.2 Drought Identification Indices | 第104-105页 |
| 7.5 Results and Discussion | 第105-115页 |
| 7.5.1 RCP2.6 | 第106-108页 |
| 7.5.2 RCP4.5 | 第108-111页 |
| 7.5.3 RCP8.5 | 第111-115页 |
| 7.6 Summary | 第115-116页 |
| 8 Conclusion | 第116-120页 |
| Acknowledgement | 第120-121页 |
| References | 第121-137页 |
| Papers published in the periods of PhD education | 第137页 |
