| 摘要 | 第4-7页 |
| Abstract | 第7-8页 |
| Chapter 1 Introduction | 第11-29页 |
| 1.1 Research background | 第11-22页 |
| 1.1.1 Overview of Kyrgyz Republic Debt | 第11-14页 |
| 1.1.2 Dynamics and Structure of the External Debt of the Kyrgyz Republic | 第14-19页 |
| 1.1.3 Macroeconomic policies and economic performance in 2006 -2016 | 第19-21页 |
| 1.1.4 Baseline Macroeconomic Assumptions | 第21-22页 |
| 1.2 Research purpose and significance | 第22-23页 |
| 1.3 Research inside and outside of country and analysis | 第23-28页 |
| 1.3.1 Research abroad | 第23-26页 |
| 1.3.2 Research at home | 第26-27页 |
| 1.3.3 Analysis of Literature Review inside and outside of Coun try | 第27-28页 |
| 1.4 Main research contents and methods | 第28-29页 |
| 1.4.1 Research contents | 第28页 |
| 1.4.2 Research methods | 第28-29页 |
| Chapter 2 Theoretical aspects and characteristics of the External Debt and Macro Economy | 第29-42页 |
| 2.1 Concept and essence of the external debt of the country | 第29-34页 |
| 2.2 Debt indicators and additional macroeconomic variables | 第34-39页 |
| 2.2.1 Debt indicators | 第34-35页 |
| 2.2.2 Macro economic variables | 第35-39页 |
| 2.3 Relationship between external debt and macro economy | 第39-40页 |
| 2.4 Summary of this chapter | 第40-42页 |
| Chapter 3 Methodology Approaches and Data Analysis | 第42-55页 |
| 3.1 Research Design | 第42页 |
| 3.2 Methodology | 第42-48页 |
| 3.2.1 Stationarity and Non-Stationarity series | 第43-44页 |
| 3.2.2 Unit root tests | 第44-45页 |
| 3.2.3 Cointegration test | 第45页 |
| 3.2.4 Granger Causality test | 第45-46页 |
| 3.2.5 Model specification | 第46-48页 |
| 3.3 Data source and selection | 第48-53页 |
| 3.4 Summary of this chapter | 第53-55页 |
| Chapter4 Empirical results, conclusion and discuss | 第55-65页 |
| 4.1 Unit root, Cointegration and KPSS results | 第55-59页 |
| 4.1.1 Results of modified model ( Zeaiter) | 第55-57页 |
| 4.1.2 VAR model analysis results | 第57-59页 |
| 4.2 Analysis of Granger Causality Test | 第59-62页 |
| 4.2.1 Results of first model (Results of modified model Zeaiter) | 第59-61页 |
| 4.2.2 Results of second model (VAR model analysis Results) | 第61-62页 |
| 4.3 The results of the research analysis | 第62-63页 |
| 4.4 Policy implication | 第63页 |
| 4.5 Summary of this chapter | 第63-65页 |
| Conclusions | 第65-67页 |
| References | 第67-72页 |
| Acknowledgements | 第72-73页 |
| Resume | 第73页 |
