| RESUME | 第6-7页 |
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS | 第7-18页 |
| 摘要 | 第18-20页 |
| ABSTRACT | 第20-22页 |
| CHAPTER ONE:INTRODUCTION | 第23-35页 |
| 1.1 General Background | 第23-25页 |
| 1.2 Agriculture in Bangladesh | 第25-27页 |
| 1.3 Significance of the Study | 第27-30页 |
| 1.4 Statement of the Research Questions | 第30-31页 |
| 1.5 Assumptions of the Study | 第31-32页 |
| 1.6 Structure of the Thesis | 第32页 |
| 1.7 Definition of the Key Terms | 第32-35页 |
| CHAPTER TWO:REVIEW OF LITERATURE | 第35-51页 |
| 2.1 Introduction | 第35页 |
| 2.2 Interrelations among Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Food Security | 第35-36页 |
| 2.3 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture:Global Context | 第36-39页 |
| 2.4 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture:Bangladesh Context | 第39-41页 |
| 2.5 Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change | 第41-42页 |
| 2.6 Determinants of Adaptation Decisions | 第42-44页 |
| 2.7 Problem Confrontation regarding Adaptation to Climate Change | 第44-45页 |
| 2.8 Models and Approaches for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture 23 | 第45-48页 |
| 2.8.1 Computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach | 第45页 |
| 2.8.2 Cross-sectional or Ricardian approach | 第45-46页 |
| 2.8.3 Crop modeling or production function approach | 第46-47页 |
| 2.8.4 Panel data approach | 第47页 |
| 2.8.5 Agro-ecological zone approach | 第47-48页 |
| 2.9 Models for Investigating the Determinants of Farmers' Adaptive Choices | 第48页 |
| 2.10 Conceptual Framework of the Study | 第48-51页 |
| CHAPTER THREE:METHODOLOGY | 第51-70页 |
| 3.1 Introduction | 第51页 |
| 3.2 Methodology for Addressing Climate Change Impacts at the National Level (Country Aggregate) | 第51-55页 |
| 3.2.1 Study area | 第51-53页 |
| 3.2.2 Data and sources | 第53-54页 |
| 3.2.3 Descriptive statistics | 第54页 |
| 3.2.4 Trend analysis | 第54页 |
| 3.2.5 Stationarity checking through unit root test | 第54-55页 |
| 3.2.6 Regression method and model | 第55页 |
| 3.3 Methodology for Determining Farm Level Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation | 第55-68页 |
| 3.3.1 Broad study area | 第55-58页 |
| 3.3.2 Specific study area | 第58-62页 |
| 3.3.3 Population and sample of the study | 第62-64页 |
| 3.3.4 Instrument of data collection | 第64页 |
| 3.3.5 Structure of the questionnaire | 第64-66页 |
| 3.3.6 Validity and reliability of the questionnaire | 第66页 |
| 3.3.7 Pre-testing the questionnaire | 第66页 |
| 3.3.8 Finalysing the questionnaire | 第66-67页 |
| 3.3.9 Survey and data collection | 第67页 |
| 3.3.10 Coding, entry and cleaning of data | 第67页 |
| 3.3.11 Data analysis | 第67-68页 |
| 3.4 Analytical framework/Research design | 第68-69页 |
| 3.5 Conclusion | 第69-70页 |
| CHAPTER FOUR:Effects of Climate Change on the Yield and Cropping Area of Major Food Crops:A Case of Bangladesh | 第70-92页 |
| 4.1. Introduction | 第70-74页 |
| 4.2. Climatic Features of Major Food Crops in Bangladesh | 第74-75页 |
| 4.3. Methodology | 第75-86页 |
| 4.3.1. Data Sources and Properties | 第75-76页 |
| 4.3.2. Descriptive Statistics | 第76-77页 |
| 4.3.3. Analysis of Quantitative Linear Trend in Climatic Variables | 第77-78页 |
| 4.3.4. Trend Graph | 第78-82页 |
| 4.3.5. Non-Climatic Trend (Influence of Production Inputs) Removal in Crop Yields | 第82-83页 |
| 4.3.6. Stationarity and Unit Root | 第83-84页 |
| 4.3.7. Empirical Model Specification | 第84-86页 |
| 4.4. Results and Discussion | 第86-90页 |
| 4.4.1. The Regression Results for Aus Rice | 第86-88页 |
| 4.4.2. The Regression Results for Aman Rice | 第88页 |
| 4.4.3. The Regression Results for Boro Rice | 第88-89页 |
| 4.4.4. The Regression Results for Wheat | 第89-90页 |
| 4.5. Conclusions | 第90-92页 |
| CHAPTER FIVE:Smallholders' Food Security in the Perspective of Climate Change: Evidence from Farm Level Data in the Northwest HBT of Bangladesh 70 | 第92-134页 |
| 5.1 Introduction | 第92-93页 |
| 5.2 Brief Literature Review | 第93-96页 |
| 5.3 Methodology | 第96-99页 |
| 5.3.1 Study area | 第96-98页 |
| 5.3.2 Population and sampling | 第98-99页 |
| 5.3.3 Analysis of data | 第99页 |
| 5.4 Results and Discussions | 第99-132页 |
| 5.4.1 Independent variables | 第99-111页 |
| 5.4.2 Dependent variable | 第111-112页 |
| 5.4.3 Mean procedure for variables with multiple categories and ANOVA | 第112-117页 |
| 5.4.4. Relationship between the independent and dependent variable | 第117-132页 |
| 5.5 Conclusions | 第132-134页 |
| CHAPTER SIX:Investigating the Determinants of Farmers' Adaptation Choices in Response to Climate Change in the Northwest High-Barind Tract of Bangladesh | 第134-175页 |
| 6.1 Introduction | 第134-135页 |
| 6.2 Brief Literature Review:Agriculture and Adaptation to Climate Change | 第135-137页 |
| 6.3 Theoretical Framework | 第137-139页 |
| 6.4 Methodology | 第139-156页 |
| 6.4.1 Study area | 第139页 |
| 6.4.2 Data | 第139-140页 |
| 6.4.3 Analytical framework | 第140-141页 |
| 6.4.4 Model specification | 第141-143页 |
| 6.4.5 Variables included in the model | 第143-156页 |
| 6.5 Results and Discussions | 第156-173页 |
| 6.5.1 Comparison of maximum temperature and rainfall data between Bangladesh and northwest HBT | 第156-158页 |
| 6.5.2 Farmers' perceptions about climate change and comparison with BMD data | 第158-165页 |
| 6.5.3 Farmers' Major Adaptation methods in the northwest HBT of Bangladesh | 第165-166页 |
| 6.5.4 Obstacles of using adaptation strategies | 第166-167页 |
| 6.5.5 Findings from the MNL regression model and discussion | 第167-173页 |
| 6.6 Conclusions | 第173-175页 |
| CHAPTER SEVEN:OVERVIEW/SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS | 第175-180页 |
| 7.1 Introduction | 第175-177页 |
| 7.2 Overview/Summary of the major findings | 第177-178页 |
| 7.2.1 Impacts of Climate change on the major food crops | 第177页 |
| 7.2.2 Smallholders' food security in the chang climatic conditions | 第177-178页 |
| 7.2.3 Investigating determinants of farmers adaptation decisions | 第178页 |
| 7.3 Recommendations | 第178-180页 |
| 7.3.1 Recommendations for policy implications | 第178-179页 |
| 7.3.2 Future recommendations to overcome limitations of this study | 第179-180页 |
| REFERENCES | 第180-205页 |
| PUBLISHED RESEARCH WORKS AND SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITIES OF THE AUTHOR | 第205-208页 |
| Appendix Ⅰ:Growing period climatic parameters at the national level | 第208-210页 |
| Appendix Ⅱ:National level data on yield,harvested area and production of major food crops | 第210-212页 |
| Appendix Ⅲ:Country-wide aggregate data on major climatic parameters of Bangladesh | 第212-222页 |
| Appendix Ⅳ:Data on major climatic parameters in the northwest HBT(greater Rajshahi district)of Bangladesh | 第222-228页 |
| Appendix Ⅴ:Annual descriptive statistics of the climate parameters in the northwest HBT, 1968-2010 | 第228-229页 |
| Appendix Ⅵ:The Questionnaire | 第229-237页 |
| Appendix Ⅶ:Variable description and summary statistics of farm level data | 第237-238页 |
| Appendix Ⅷ:Correlation matrix of independent variables and food security | 第238-239页 |
| Appendix Ⅸ:Correlation matrix of the explanatory variables of the adaptation mode | 第239页 |
