| ABSTRACT | 第3-4页 |
| DEDICATION | 第10-11页 |
| CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION | 第11-23页 |
| 1.1 Research Background | 第11-15页 |
| 1.1.1 Uncertainties in Global Oil Prices | 第11页 |
| 1.1.2 SPR of China with Oil Price Uncertainties | 第11-14页 |
| 1.1.3 China’s Effort to Increase its Domestic Oil Production | 第14-15页 |
| 1.2 The Major Oil Players and Existing Oil Market Reforms | 第15-17页 |
| 1.3 Renewable energies development | 第17-21页 |
| 1.3.1 Global renewable energy resources development | 第17-19页 |
| 1.3.2 China’s renewable energy development | 第19-21页 |
| 1.4 Research Objectives and Significances of the Study | 第21页 |
| 1.4.1 Research Objectives | 第21页 |
| 1.4.2 Research Significances | 第21页 |
| 1.5 Scope of the Study | 第21页 |
| 1.6 Organization of the study | 第21-23页 |
| CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW | 第23-28页 |
| 2.1 Overview of Different Strategic Petroleum Reserve Policies | 第23页 |
| 2.2 Theory Review of Strategic Petroleum Reserve | 第23-28页 |
| 2.2.1 Dynamic Programming and Markov Decision Process | 第23-24页 |
| 2.2.2 Game Theory | 第24-25页 |
| 2.2.3 System Dynamics | 第25-28页 |
| CHAPTER THREE: OVERVIEW OF CURRENT STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE | 第28-39页 |
| 3.1 Current Strategic Petroleum Reserve Situation | 第28-32页 |
| 3.1.1 Strategic Petroleum Reserve Review in Major Countries | 第28-29页 |
| 3.1.2 Strategic Petroleum Reserve Review in China | 第29-31页 |
| 3.1.3 Overview of related petroleum policies in China | 第31-32页 |
| 3.2 Current Market Reforms Situation in China | 第32-34页 |
| 3.2.1 Price Mechanisms of Oil Products | 第32-33页 |
| 3.2.2 China’s Oil Products Price Mechanisms | 第33-34页 |
| 3.3 Current Energy Security Situation in China | 第34-39页 |
| 3.3.1 Renewable Resources development | 第34-36页 |
| 3.3.2 Renewable Energy Policies in China | 第36-38页 |
| 3.3.3 Feed- In Tariffs (FIT) Policy in China | 第38-39页 |
| CHAPTER FOUR: METHODOLOGY | 第39-52页 |
| 4.1 Conceptual Framework | 第39页 |
| 4.2 Methodologies Roadmap | 第39-40页 |
| 4.3 Markov Decision Process | 第40-41页 |
| 4.4 Introduction to Dynamic Programming | 第41-45页 |
| 4.4.1 Dynamic Programming Modelling | 第42-43页 |
| 4.4.2 Mathematical Structure | 第43-45页 |
| 4.5 Game Theory | 第45-47页 |
| 4.5.1 Game Theory in the Petroleum Reserve Industry | 第45页 |
| 4.5.2 Joint Venture Game Theory | 第45-47页 |
| 4.6 System Dynamic | 第47-52页 |
| 4.6.1 The Concept of System Dynamics and Oil Reserve | 第48-49页 |
| 4.6.2 Development of a System Dynamic model for energy policies | 第49-52页 |
| CHAPTER FIVE:DATA AND RESULTS ANALYSIS | 第52-64页 |
| 5.1 Data | 第52-53页 |
| 5.2 Introduction to GAMS | 第53页 |
| 5.2.1 Importance of GAMS | 第53页 |
| 5.2.2 GAMS General Principles | 第53页 |
| 5.3 Dynamic Programming Model Assumption | 第53-54页 |
| 5.3.1 Basis of Model Solving | 第53-54页 |
| 5.3.2 Model Solving | 第54页 |
| 5.4 Results Analysis (Dynamic Programming) | 第54-58页 |
| 5.4.1 Sample Results for the base case | 第54-55页 |
| 5.4.2 Scenario Settings | 第55-56页 |
| 5.4.3 Sensitivity Analysis | 第56-58页 |
| 5.4.4 Summary | 第58页 |
| 5.5 Analysis of System Dynamics Energy Models | 第58-64页 |
| 5.5.1 Introduction to STELLA Software | 第59页 |
| 5.5.2 Results Discussion | 第59-63页 |
| 5.5.3 Summary | 第63-64页 |
| CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS | 第64-67页 |
| APPRECIATION | 第67-68页 |
| REFERENCES | 第68-71页 |
