| Abstract | 第5-6页 |
| 摘要 | 第7-8页 |
| 1. Introduction | 第8-11页 |
| 1.1 Research background | 第8-9页 |
| 1.2 Basic idea and innovation | 第9-10页 |
| 1.3 Section outline | 第10-11页 |
| 2. Introduction of institution development of earnings forecasts | 第11-14页 |
| 2.1 Earnings preannouncement | 第11-12页 |
| 2.2 Preliminary earnings estimate | 第12-14页 |
| 3. Literature review | 第14-20页 |
| 3.1 Cornerstone for studies on information content of accounting earnings | 第14-15页 |
| 3.1.1 Information asymmetry | 第14页 |
| 3.1.2 Efficient market hypothesis | 第14-15页 |
| 3.1.3 Information content | 第15页 |
| 3.2 Earnings forecasts and market reaction | 第15-17页 |
| 3.2.1 Foreign studies | 第15-16页 |
| 3.2.2 Chinese studies | 第16-17页 |
| 3.3 Disclosing strategy | 第17-20页 |
| 3.3.1 Timeliness | 第17-18页 |
| 3.3.2 Corporate governance | 第18页 |
| 3.3.3 Other issues | 第18-20页 |
| 4. Theoretical analysis and hypotheses | 第20-25页 |
| 4.1 Information content of semi-annual preliminary earnings estimate | 第20-21页 |
| 4.2 Effect of semi-annual preliminary earnings estimate on weakening stock price fluctuation round half year earnings announcement day | 第21页 |
| 4.3 Relationship between accuracy and timeliness of semi-annual preliminary earnings estimate and price fluctuation round half year earnings announcement day | 第21-22页 |
| 4.4 Factors that influence management’s choice of disclosing semi-annual preliminary earnings estimates | 第22-25页 |
| 5. Research design | 第25-37页 |
| 5.1 Sample collection | 第25-26页 |
| 5.2 Criteria for dropping samples | 第26-27页 |
| 5.3 Calculation of key variables | 第27-30页 |
| 5.3.1 Unexpected earnings | 第27-28页 |
| 5.3.2 Cumulative abnormal return | 第28-29页 |
| 5.3.3 Abnormal return volatility | 第29-30页 |
| 5.3.4 Difference between preliminary earnings estimate and semi-annual financial statements | 第30页 |
| 5.4 Other variables | 第30-31页 |
| 5.4.1 Institutional holding | 第30页 |
| 5.4.2 Leverage | 第30页 |
| 5.4.3 Price to book ratio | 第30-31页 |
| 5.4.4 Company scale | 第31页 |
| 5.4.5 SME | 第31页 |
| 5.4.6 Year | 第31页 |
| 5.5 Methodologies and models | 第31-35页 |
| 5.5.1 Information content of semi-annual preliminary earnings estimate | 第31-32页 |
| 5.5.2 Effect of semi-annual preliminary earnings estimate on weakening stock price fluctuation round half year financial announcement day | 第32-33页 |
| 5.5.3 Relationship between accuracy and timeliness of semi-annual preliminary earnings estimate and price fluctuation round half year financial announcement day | 第33-34页 |
| 5.5.4 Factors that influence management’s choice of disclosing semi-annual preliminary earnings estimates | 第34-35页 |
| 5.6 Summary of variables | 第35-37页 |
| 6. Empirical results and analysis | 第37-55页 |
| 6.1 Test for Hypothesis 1 | 第37-42页 |
| 6.1.1 Descriptive data | 第37-41页 |
| 6.1.2 Regression result | 第41-42页 |
| 6.2 Test for Hypothesis 2 | 第42-48页 |
| 6.2.1 Descriptive data | 第42-46页 |
| 6.2.2 Regression results | 第46-48页 |
| 6.3 Test for Hypothesis 3 | 第48-51页 |
| 6.3.1 Descriptive data | 第48-49页 |
| 6.3.2 Regression result | 第49-51页 |
| 6.4 Test for Hypothesis 4 | 第51-55页 |
| 6.4.1 Descriptive data | 第51-52页 |
| 6.4.2 Regression result | 第52-55页 |
| 7. Robustness check | 第55-56页 |
| 8. Discussion on policy implication and improvement | 第56-58页 |
| 9. Conclusion of the paper | 第58-60页 |
| Bibliography | 第60-65页 |
| Acknowledgements | 第65-68页 |
| 附件 | 第68页 |
