| 摘要 | 第5-6页 |
| Abstract | 第6页 |
| 1 Introduction | 第7-12页 |
| 1.1 Background of research topic | 第7-9页 |
| 1.2 Summary of results | 第9-11页 |
| 1.3 Outline of the paper | 第11-12页 |
| 2 Literature review and hypotheses development | 第12-26页 |
| 2.1 Optimistic bias | 第12-15页 |
| 2.1.1 Incentive to manage good relationship with corporate management | 第12-13页 |
| 2.1.2 Incentive to stimulate the trading volume for commission | 第13-14页 |
| 2.1.3 Incentive to solicit investment banking business | 第14-15页 |
| 2.2 Influence of the forecast revisions | 第15-18页 |
| 2.2.1 Firm characteristics determining the influence of the analyst forecast revisions | 第16-17页 |
| 2.2.2 Analyst characteristics determining the influence of the analyst forecast revisions | 第17-18页 |
| 2.3 Institutional investors' role | 第18-21页 |
| 2.4 Domestic research about analysts' behavior | 第21-23页 |
| 2.5 Summary of earlier researches | 第23页 |
| 2.6 Hypotheses development | 第23-26页 |
| 3 Model specification,data and sample selection | 第26-36页 |
| 3.1 Measuring market influence | 第26-27页 |
| 3.2 Measuring conservatism of analysts | 第27-28页 |
| 3.3 Measuring forecast revision | 第28页 |
| 3.4 Influence of forecast revisions made by more conservative analysts | 第28-31页 |
| 3.5 Incremental influence of forecast revisions made by conservative analysts on institutional investors | 第31-32页 |
| 3.6 Data | 第32-33页 |
| 3.7 Sample Selection | 第33-36页 |
| 3.7.1 Forecast data | 第33页 |
| 3.7.2 Conservative measure | 第33-34页 |
| 3.7.3 Forecast revision calculation | 第34页 |
| 3.7.4 Firm characteristics | 第34页 |
| 3.7.5 Market response | 第34-36页 |
| 4 Empirical results | 第36-55页 |
| 4.1 Test of optimistic bias | 第36-37页 |
| 4.2 Descriptive statistics | 第37-44页 |
| 4.3 Empirical test of conservative analysts' market influence (Hugon and Muslu's Method) | 第44-47页 |
| 4.4 Empirical test of conservative analysts' market influence (5-day window) | 第47-49页 |
| 4.5 Empirical test of conservative analysts' market influence (11-day window) | 第49-52页 |
| 4.6 Empirical test of conservative analysts' influence on institutional investors | 第52-55页 |
| 5 Conclusion and recommendation | 第55-57页 |
| Appendix | 第57-59页 |
| Reference | 第59-63页 |
| Acknowledgements | 第63-64页 |
