| Abstract | 第5-6页 |
| 摘要 | 第7-17页 |
| Introduction | 第17-20页 |
| 1 Research Background and Significance | 第20-51页 |
| 1.1 Environmental determinants of malaria | 第20-28页 |
| 1.1.1 Temperature | 第21-22页 |
| 1.1.2 Rainfall | 第22页 |
| 1.1.3 Surface water environment | 第22-23页 |
| 1.1.4 Topography and altitude | 第23-24页 |
| 1.1.5 Land use and cover changes | 第24-25页 |
| 1.1.6 Population pattern and mobility | 第25-26页 |
| 1.1.7 Household environment | 第26-28页 |
| 1.2 Global environmental change and human health | 第28-37页 |
| 1.2.1 Climate change projections of IPCC | 第28-32页 |
| 1.2.2 Climate change and mosquito distribution | 第32-33页 |
| 1.2.3 Climate change and malaria | 第33-35页 |
| 1.2.4 Current climate change projections and malaria | 第35-37页 |
| 1.3 Environmental modeling for malaria | 第37-42页 |
| 1.3.1 Models based on Environmental factors | 第37-39页 |
| 1.3.2 Geographical Information System models | 第39-40页 |
| 1.3.3 Bayesian geo-statistical models | 第40-42页 |
| 1.4 Chemical approaches for malaria control | 第42-45页 |
| 1.4.1 Insecticide-treated nets | 第42页 |
| 1.4.2 Indoor-residual spraying of insecticides | 第42-43页 |
| 1.4.3 Prompt treatment | 第43-45页 |
| 1.5 Environmental management for malaria control | 第45-49页 |
| 1.5.1 Environmental interventions | 第46-47页 |
| 1.5.2 Environmental mosquito exclusion | 第47-48页 |
| 1.5.3 Environmental mosquito diversion | 第48页 |
| 1.5.4 Biological mosquito control | 第48-49页 |
| 1.6 Rationale of the study | 第49-51页 |
| 1.6.1 Summary of current studies | 第49-50页 |
| 1.6.2 Key research questions to be answered | 第50-51页 |
| 2. Major content and methodology of the Dissertation | 第51-62页 |
| 2.1 Introduction | 第51页 |
| 2.2 Study objectives and technical route | 第51-52页 |
| 2.3 Data utilized in the Dissertation | 第52-58页 |
| 2.3.1 Malaria parasitemia data | 第52-55页 |
| 2.3.2 Projected climate scenario data | 第55-57页 |
| 2.3.3 Environmental and social-economic data | 第57-58页 |
| 2.4 Data processing and modeling techniques | 第58-62页 |
| 2.4.1 Logistic regression modeling | 第58页 |
| 2.4.2 Bayesian Belief Networks modeling | 第58-59页 |
| 2.4.3 Bayesian belief network-GIS integrated techniques | 第59-62页 |
| 3 Environmental Management Strategies for Household Malaria Control by Logistic Regression Modeling | 第62-80页 |
| 3.1 Introduction | 第62-64页 |
| 3.2 Materials and methods | 第64-67页 |
| 3.2.1 Data sets and sources | 第64页 |
| 3.2.2 Study population and household environmental variable selection | 第64-65页 |
| 3.2.3 Data processing and modeling method | 第65-67页 |
| 3.3 Results | 第67-74页 |
| 3.4 Discussion | 第74-78页 |
| 3.4.1 Environmental modification for mosquito control | 第74-76页 |
| 3.4.2 Environmental strategies for mosquito diversion | 第76-77页 |
| 3.4.3 Environmental strategies for mosquito exclusion | 第77-78页 |
| 3.5 Brief Summary of the Chapter | 第78-80页 |
| 4 Bayesian Network Modeling of Effects of Environmental Factors on Malaria Incidences | 第80-99页 |
| 4.1 Introduction | 第80-82页 |
| 4.2 Materials and methods | 第82-88页 |
| 4.2.1 Environmental factors influencing malaria | 第82-84页 |
| 4.2.2 Survey datasets and variables for model building | 第84-86页 |
| 4.2.3 Environmental model structure and parameterization | 第86-87页 |
| 4.2.4 Parameter calibration of environmental model | 第87页 |
| 4.2.5 Performance evaluation of environmental model | 第87-88页 |
| 4.3 Results | 第88-93页 |
| 4.3.1 Modeling of the household environmental factors on malaria | 第88-89页 |
| 4.3.2 Accuracy evaluation on environmental model | 第89-91页 |
| 4.3.3 Sensitivity analysis for household environmental factors | 第91-93页 |
| 4.4 Discussion | 第93-97页 |
| 4.4.1 Drinking water sources | 第93页 |
| 4.4.2 Household wealth status | 第93-94页 |
| 4.4.3 Household building materials and other protection | 第94-95页 |
| 4.4.4 Household sanitation | 第95-96页 |
| 4.4.5 Household livestock | 第96-97页 |
| 4.5 Brief Summary of the Chapter | 第97-99页 |
| 5 Global environmental Impact of Climate Change on Malaria by Bayesian-GIS Integrated Modeling | 第99-120页 |
| 5.1 Introduction | 第99-101页 |
| 5.2 Materials and methods | 第101-107页 |
| 5.2.1 Method of integrating Bayesian model with GIS | 第101-103页 |
| 5.2.2 Surveyed malaria data and processing | 第103-105页 |
| 5.2.3 Climate change scenarios projected by multiple IPCC models | 第105-107页 |
| 5.2.4 Accuracy evaluation on BBN-GIS integrated model | 第107页 |
| 5.3 Results | 第107-115页 |
| 5.3.1 BBN-GIS modeling on malaria occurrences | 第107-110页 |
| 5.3.2 Effects of different GHGs emission scenarios on malaria | 第110-113页 |
| 5.3.3 Spatial pattern of future malaria hotspots driven by climate change | 第113-115页 |
| 5.4 Discussion | 第115-119页 |
| 5.4.1 Malaria projections in relation to future climate change | 第116-118页 |
| 5.4.2 Strengths of BBN-GIS integrated modeling method | 第118-119页 |
| 5.5 Brief Summary of the Chapter | 第119-120页 |
| 6 Conclusions, Recommendations and Future Research | 第120-124页 |
| 6.1 Conclusions | 第120-122页 |
| 6.2 Innovation points | 第122-123页 |
| 6.3 Policy suggestion and research prospects | 第123-124页 |
| References | 第124-145页 |
| Appendices | 第145页 |
| Supplementary Information for Chapter 2 | 第145-146页 |
| Supplementary Information for Chapter 4 | 第146-216页 |
| Supplementary Information for Chapter 5 | 第216-259页 |
| Academic Publications during Ph.D Period | 第259-260页 |
| Acknowledgement | 第260-261页 |
| Curriculum Vitae | 第261-263页 |
