| LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES | 第5-6页 |
| 摘要 | 第6-7页 |
| ABSTRACT | 第7-8页 |
| 1. INTRODUCTION | 第9-19页 |
| 1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND | 第9-13页 |
| 1.2 THE THEORETICAL LITERATURE AND MODELS | 第13-17页 |
| 1.2.1 International studies | 第13-15页 |
| A.Financial risks and c risis studies | 第13-14页 |
| B.Early Warning models studies | 第14-15页 |
| 1.2.2 China's studies | 第15-17页 |
| A.Selection of early warning indicators | 第15-16页 |
| B.Empirical analysis | 第16-17页 |
| 1.3 STRUCTURE | 第17-19页 |
| 2. CHINA'S FINANCIAL RISK MEASUREMENT BASED ON FACTORANALYSIS | 第19-43页 |
| 2.1 METHODOLOGY INTRODUCTION | 第20-22页 |
| 2.2 INDICATORS SELECTION | 第22-30页 |
| 2.2.1 Selection criteria | 第22-23页 |
| 2.2.2 Selected indicators' descriptions | 第23-26页 |
| 2.2.3 Indicators' critical values | 第26-27页 |
| 2.2.4 Indicators' values and their risk implication | 第27-30页 |
| 2.3 FACTOR ANALYSIS | 第30-38页 |
| 2.3.1 Factor analysis model establishment | 第30-32页 |
| 2.3.2 Factors' economic significance | 第32-34页 |
| 2.3.3 Factor scores and their risk implications | 第34-38页 |
| 2.4 ANALYSIS ON THE MODEL RESULTS | 第38-40页 |
| 2.5 CONCERNS IN MODEL APPLICATION | 第40-43页 |
| 3. EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ESTABLISHMENT BASED ON NEURALNETWORK ANALYSIS | 第43-57页 |
| 3.1 MOTIVATIONS BEHIND ESTABLISHING FINANCIAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEM | 第45-46页 |
| 3.2 METHODOLOGY OF BACK-PROPAGATION ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK | 第46-49页 |
| 3.2.1 Introduction of Artificial Neural Network | 第46-48页 |
| 3.2.2 Introduction of BP artificial neural network | 第48-49页 |
| 3.3 ESTABLISHMENT OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEM BASED ON BP NEURAL NETWORK | 第49-56页 |
| 3.3.1 Establishment and training of BP neural network | 第49-52页 |
| A.Parameters setup | 第49-51页 |
| B.Model establishment in practice | 第51-52页 |
| 3.3.2 Test of BP neural network | 第52-53页 |
| 3.3.3 Forecast based on BP neural network | 第53-56页 |
| 3.4 DEFICIENCIES OF BP NEURAL NETWORK | 第56-57页 |
| 4. POLICY ADVICE | 第57-65页 |
| 4.1 DATA COLLECTION AND GENERATION PROCESS | 第57-62页 |
| 4.2 FINANCIAL INFORMATIZATION AND DATA SHARING MECHANISM | 第62-63页 |
| 4.3 EWS IN WIDER AND MORE SPECIFIC FRAMEWORK | 第63-65页 |
| 5. CONCLUSION | 第65-68页 |
| REFERENCES | 第68-72页 |
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS | 第72-73页 |
