| Abstract(English) | 第1-4页 |
| Abstract(Chinese) | 第4-7页 |
| List of Tables | 第7页 |
| List of Figures | 第7-8页 |
| Chapter 1 Background | 第8-19页 |
| ·Real estate | 第8-9页 |
| ·The development of China housing market | 第9-12页 |
| ·Distribution phase(1945～early 1980s) | 第10页 |
| ·Transition phase.(Early 1980s～1998) | 第10-11页 |
| ·Rapid expanding phase(1998～present) | 第11-12页 |
| ·China and other nations'housing price development in recent years | 第12-13页 |
| ·China's current real estate industry | 第13-15页 |
| ·Overview of the housing market in Shanghai | 第15-19页 |
| Chapter 2 Economic bubble and speculation | 第19-23页 |
| ·Economic bubble & speculation | 第19-21页 |
| ·Japanese asset price bubble | 第21-23页 |
| Chapter 3 Indicators to measure Shanghai housing market | 第23-34页 |
| ·Housing market indicators | 第23页 |
| ·Housing affordability measure | 第23-28页 |
| ·Housing price appreciation to GDP(per capita)growth ratio | 第28-30页 |
| ·Housing financing indicators | 第30-34页 |
| Chapter 4 Previous studies on housing price bubble modeling | 第34-40页 |
| ·Abraham and Hendershott's equilibrium price model | 第34-36页 |
| ·Malpezzi's simple error correction model | 第36-38页 |
| ·Himmelberg's user cost model | 第38-40页 |
| Chapter 5 Modeling issue and empirical test | 第40-51页 |
| ·The model | 第40-41页 |
| ·Empirical test | 第41-46页 |
| ·Implications of test result | 第46-51页 |
| Chapter 6 Policy Implications | 第51-56页 |
| ·Mechanism of bubble accumulation | 第51页 |
| ·Measures to counter speculations | 第51-52页 |
| ·Strengthening banking regulation | 第52-53页 |
| ·Expanding economic housing supply | 第53-54页 |
| ·Measure to counter inadequate data and weak analysis | 第54-56页 |
| Chapter 7 Conclusion | 第56-58页 |
| References | 第58-59页 |
