| ABSTRACT | 第10-14页 |
| LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS | 第15-16页 |
| CHAPTER ONE:INTRODUCTION | 第16-54页 |
| 1.1 Background | 第16-27页 |
| 1.2 Objectives | 第27-28页 |
| 1.3 Hypotheses | 第28-29页 |
| 1.4 Organization of the Thesis | 第29页 |
| 1.5 World Tea Economy | 第29-43页 |
| 1.5.1 Black Tea Processing | 第29-30页 |
| 1.5.2 Main Types of Tea | 第30-31页 |
| 1.5.3 World tea production,export,consumption and trade in Black Tea | 第31-43页 |
| 1.6 Factors affecting global tea trade | 第43-54页 |
| 1.6.1 Currency fluctuations and tea prices | 第43-45页 |
| 1.6.2 How Price is discovered in the auction market | 第45-46页 |
| 1.6.3 World Tea Price | 第46-47页 |
| 1.6.4 Regional bodies and bilateral trade agreements:How they shape world black tea markets of Asia and Africa | 第47-54页 |
| CHAPTER TWO:GENERAL LITERATURE REVIEW | 第54-92页 |
| 2.1 Theoretical Literature | 第54-63页 |
| 2.1.1 Market Integration Concept | 第56-61页 |
| 2.1.2 Sptial Arbitrage Concept | 第61-62页 |
| 2.1.3 The Law of One Price Concept | 第62-63页 |
| 2.2 Empirical Literature | 第63-71页 |
| 2.3 Review of Models | 第71-92页 |
| 2.3.1 Simple Regression and Static Price Correlation Model | 第71-75页 |
| 2.3.2 Dynamic Regression Models | 第75-77页 |
| 2.3.3 Dynamic Regression Models Based on Point-Location Model | 第77-78页 |
| 2.3.4 Granger Causality and Lead/lag Relationships Model | 第78-80页 |
| 2.3.5 Ravallion/Timmer Market Integration Criteria Model | 第80-84页 |
| 2.3.6 Vector Autoregressive Model | 第84-85页 |
| 2.3.7 Co-integration Analysis Model | 第85-89页 |
| 2.3.8 Switching Regime Models | 第89-92页 |
| CHAPTER THREE:METHODOLOGY | 第92-110页 |
| 3.1 The Study Area | 第92-99页 |
| 3.1.1 Sri Lankan Tea Industry and Colombo Tea Auction | 第94-95页 |
| 3.1.2 Indian Tea Industry and Tea Auctions | 第95-96页 |
| 3.1.3 Indonesian Tea Industry and Jakarta Tea Auction | 第96-97页 |
| 3.1.4 Kenyan Tea Industry and Mombasa Tea Auction | 第97-98页 |
| 3.1.5 Malawi Tea Industry and Limbe Tea Auction | 第98页 |
| 3.1.6 Tea industry in Bangladesh and Chittagong tea auction centre | 第98-99页 |
| 3.2 Limitations of the study | 第99-100页 |
| 3.3 Conceptual Framework | 第100-103页 |
| 3.4 Model for global tea relationships and implications | 第103-107页 |
| 3.5 Data sources | 第107-110页 |
| CHAPTER FOUR:RELATIONSHIPS AND IMPLICATIONS OF WORLD BLACKTEA MARKETS TO THE GLOBAL TEA INDUSTRY | 第110-138页 |
| 4.1 Introduction | 第110页 |
| 4.2 Descriptive Statistics for global tea markets prices from 2001 to 2009 | 第110-112页 |
| 4.3 The evolution of monthly average prices for world tea markets from 2001 to 2009 | 第112-115页 |
| 4.4 Pair wise correlation matrix between the prices of tea in world tea auction markets | 第115-116页 |
| 4.5 Unit root tests | 第116-118页 |
| 4.6 Engel granger 2 step cointergration test | 第118-119页 |
| 4.7 Bivariate cointergration test of log world tea prices between 2001 and 2009 | 第119-126页 |
| 4.8 Pair wise Granger Causality test for the world tea auction market price series 2001 to2009 | 第126-129页 |
| 4.9 Discussion,Conclusion and implications to the global tea trade | 第129-138页 |
| CHAPTER FIVE:ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF PRICE TRANSMISSION TOSMALL HOLDER TEA PRICES IN AFRICA | 第138-164页 |
| 5.1 Introduction | 第138页 |
| 5.2. Tracing the tea from smallholder farmer's basket to the international markets. Are smallholders' tea farmers in Africa benefiting from the current good historical prices? | 第138-146页 |
| 5.3 Tea prices transmission and Market integration testing framework | 第146-152页 |
| 5.4 Results and discussion:Price transmission African tea markets | 第152-159页 |
| 5.5 Summary and Policy Conclusions | 第159-164页 |
| CHAPTER SIX:EVIDENCE FROM THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE (TAR)ANDMOMENTUM THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH(M-TAR) | 第164-182页 |
| 6.1 Testing for asymmetric price transmission on tea prices by use of novel methods | 第164-171页 |
| 6.2 Econometric Modelling by Threshold Autoregressive(TAR) and Momentum Thresholdautoregressive(M-TAR) | 第171-174页 |
| 6.3 Empirical results | 第174-178页 |
| 6.4 Conclusion | 第178-182页 |
| CHAPTER SEVEN:GLOBAL TEA PRICE VOLATILITY,COPING STRATEGIES,AND CHINA PRODUCTION | 第182-210页 |
| 7.1 Introduction | 第182页 |
| 7.2 Global tea price volatility | 第182-185页 |
| 7.3 Overview of global tea volatility | 第185-186页 |
| 7.4 Global supply,production,consumption trends and currency fluctuations | 第186-189页 |
| 7.5 Tea production from China | 第189-190页 |
| 7.6 Methodology for Global tea volatility study | 第190-195页 |
| 7.7 Results and discussion global tea volatility | 第195-204页 |
| 7.8 Coping strategies | 第204-207页 |
| 7.9 Conclusions,Implications and Limitation for the tea industry | 第207-210页 |
| REFERENCES | 第210-226页 |
| PUBLICATIONS | 第226-228页 |
| ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS | 第228-229页 |
